Gold, silver and oil finish higher
Retail long bias hardly changed, technical overview remains volatile.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices were relatively more stable following last Friday's plummet, this time around taking its price briefly above the $1,600 level on more than one occasion. There's no denying that risk off moves in the financial markets that dent equities has a tendency to aid the precious metal's price, but any significant squeeze may force traders who are heavy to extreme long in indices to unwind gold positions to reinforce and cover tested positions in equities. From a technical standpoint, the increased volatility means pivot points are at greater risk of breaking, and its ADX (Average Directional Index) is showing an ongoing propensity to trend.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail bias remains heavy long anticipating a move back up, with the bias down a notch at 76%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
While both gold and silver prices plummeted on Friday, the overview is far more bearish for silver with its price below all its main moving averages, a negative DMI (Directional Movement Index), and piercing the lower extremes of the band. Expectations have been for the gold/silver ratio to retrace, and it has done just that as of this morning but only slightly, as overall gold has been outperforming compared to its precious metal cousin.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Retail bias here is at more extreme long levels compared to gold (as well as platinum), standing at a staggering extreme long 92% as of this morning.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
After gapping lower at the start of the session, oil prices were in for volatile movement whereby it filled the gap and made a move higher past its Weekly 1st Resistance level in line with conformist breakout strategies. Much of the gains yesterday can be attributed to expectations of monetary and fiscal easing, as manufacturing PMIs remained tested out of China, Australia, Japan and the US. Should the coronavirus spread further, and its result would continue to hurt manufacturing and supply chains that in turn would test the energy commodity. API's (American Petroleum Institute) oil inventories estimate will be released tonight, though with EIA tomorrow and OPEC the day after any moves may not be able to stick in the face of bigger fundamental updates later in the week.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
The latest price moves have caused significant pain for both retail and larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report, the former raising that bias 5% into extreme long territory and the latter raising it by 3% as although long positions dropped by 12,454 lots for crude oil, short positions dropped by a larger 31,156 lots.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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