Gold surges to highs unseen since 2013, silver and oil gains fail to stick
CoT bias pushes into further extreme long territory for gold and oil, silver bias heavy long.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
A massive gap higher followed by fresh higher highs for gold that took its price towards levels unseen since 2013, buoyed by a rise in geopolitical tensions and hence a flight to the safe haven precious metal. That has kept all its main technical indicators flashing green, but where the overview remains volatile (to say the least) and hence conformist breakout strategies in the short-term have been the outperformers as of late compared to contrarian reversals. That's not to say its price won't settle in a certain range eventually, though for now intraday ranges have ben sizeable.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold
In terms of sentiment, the moves have been in line with majority long retail and CoT (Commitment of Traders) larger speculative traders, whose bias has risen further to an extreme long 88% on an increase in long positions by 17,310 lots and a simultaneous reduction in shorts by 4,963 lots.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
With precious metals outperforming against the US dollar (and most everything else), silver's price breached its short-term support level but once again failed to stick. What the move has done is keep its current bull trend technical overview intact (for the daily, not the weekly whereby its weekly pivot points have managed to hold). In terms of which outperformed, the gold/silver spread rose for its second consecutive session, as investors take preference with gold over its precious metal cousin.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver
On the sentiment front, the percentage is now at 74% and approaching extreme long territory on an increase in silver longs by 5,280 lots and a reduction in shorts by 2,026 lots. However, the heavy long bias is nowhere near extreme long bias held in other precious metals like gold (at 88%), platinum (at 88%), and palladium (at 80%).
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Volatile is the key word that comes to mind when viewing energy prices, with geopolitical tensions failing to subside and potentially expanding to include sanctions on oil producer Iraq, which in the event of occurring would constrain oil supplies considerably. The first of the main weekly oil data will be released tonight in the form of API (American Petroleum Institute) and following two consecutive and significant weekly drawdowns. From a technical standpoint, both short-term and long-term pivot points are at risk of getting breached (upside or downside depending on the latest news).
IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail short bias has shifted to a slight long 52% from the day before’s majority short 56%, while larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT report remain in extreme long territories and heavy beneficiaries of the latest moves, upping that bias a notch to an extreme long 90%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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