Gold traders await US GDP and Fed’s decision

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Gold prices may have plummeted early on in yesterday’s session, but they rose off of yesterday's 1st Support level twice, keeping its bull trend technical overview intact, even if it’s been stalling and lacking intraday momentum attempting to breach a short-term resistance level that has successfully held thus far. But technicals aside, we've got a big fundamental event this evening with the US central bank that'll affect not just the US dollar, but also risk and yield-related products (of which gold is non-yielding and a safe haven asset). Expect pivot points (in either direction) to be at greater risk of breaking.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

Going into the event both retail and larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report are holding a majority long bias, the former at a heavy long 70% and the latter at an extreme long 90%.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with gold, silver's early plummet yesterday also aided conformist buy-on-reversal strategies on yesterday's 1st Support level, and barely keeping its bull trend technical overview intact ahead of the fundamental FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) event. The lack of relative change between the two precious metals has kept the gold/silver ratio moving in very narrow ranges. Here too, technicals will mean less ahead of today’s preliminary GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Q1 figure for the US and Fed announcement.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Although oil prices were in for volatile movement yesterday, it stayed within its key pivot points even if it was on the verge of breaking below yesterday’s 1st Support level. In oil data, API's (American Petroleum Institute) reading showed a 9.9m surplus, and up next it'll be the more encompassing EIA (Energy Information Administration) estimate expected to show a 11.2m increase. In the futures market, the spread between the June and July contracts have narrowed to under $5 this morning. In earnings, BP announced $4.4bn quarterly loss yesterday, ached of more earnings from the Oil Majors later this week.

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IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Retail bias jumped into heavy long territories on Monday at 72%, and since then is up a notch to 73%, still well below that of CoT traders.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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