Little changed with Gold ahead of US CPI figures tomorrow

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Gold technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

There was a lack of play yesterday with price movement rangebound and within yesterday’s daily levels. And when it comes to gold prices, it's rare to view consecutive calm sessions as a sign that there's an absence of volatility coming, especially with what's on offer tomorrow and the week ahead. As for yesterday, US yields enjoyed significant gains on the further end of the curve (while on the shorter end the two-year briefly breached 0.7%) helping lift real negative longer-term yields off of lows, inflation expectations rising a bit, markets still slightly majority pricing in a rate hike for May.

And the ten-year auction yesterday getting a decent bid-cover ratio.

We’ve got the 30-year auction tonight, but it’s really about Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings out of the US tomorrow, which combined with major central bank announcements next week meaning net, breakouts are expected to eventually outperform if market movement lives up to expectations, the proximity of price to key moving averages and the huddling of key indicators masking moves as false signals may throw off traders.

IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold

Retail trader bias has pushed further into the buy extremes at 83% as of this morning from 80% yesterday, and higher than that of CoT (Commitment of Traders) speculators who are at 79% as per last week’s report. Retail trader bias in platinum is unchanged at 89%, even higher for silver at 95%.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

^{*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.}

^{**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.}