Skip to content

CFDs are complex financial instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex financial instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Market update: JPY outlook shaky as retail traders remain bearish USD/JPY

The Japanese yen weakens to its softest since November, while retail traders adopt a bearish stance to USD/JPY.

Source: Bloomberg

Bullish USD/JPY sentiment outlook

The JPY closed at its weakest against the US dollar since early November after the USD/JPY soared the most since late July. In response, retail traders have increased downside exposure in the exchange rate. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will USD/JPY extend higher next?

The IGCS gauge shows that only about 20% of retail traders are net-long USD/JPY. Since an overwhelming majority of them are biased to the downside, this is offering a bearish outlook for the broader horizon.

Meanwhile, downside bets have increased by 3.72% and 7.4% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, overall positioning and recent changes produce a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

IG client sentiment chart

Source: DailyFX

Japanese yen technical analysis

Taking a look at the daily chart below, USD/JPY has closed above 146.56, a key resistance point established throughout August. The breakout opens the door to resuming what has been the broader uptrend since the beginning of this year. Immediate resistance from here is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at 148.27. Pushing beyond that exposes last year’s peak of 151.94.

Keep in mind that negative RSI divergence is brewing. While prices have set higher highs, the momentum indicator has not. This can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome places the focus on the 20-day moving average, which can function as support, maintaining the upside technical focus. Otherwise, further losses would place the focus on rising support from March.

USD/JPY daily chart

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Friday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.