Markets to watch: AUD/USD, S&P 500, Netflix and natural gas

The global market is coming back from holiday mode where most western countries enjoyed an Easter long weekend. Entering another shortened week, the economic outlook remains the focus in the financial world as the World Bank cuts its 2022 prediction for economic growth from 4.1% to 3.2%.

In the meantime, China reported its first-quarter GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year on Monday, beating the forecast of 4.4%. However, a decline of 3.5% in retail sales has shocked the market, fuelling concern over the economic slowdown in mainland China and its impact globally.

AUD/USD

The RBA released its minutes from its April meeting, hinting at the possibility of bringing forward the interest rate hike timeline if core inflation and wages growth continues to climb. The March CPI is due next week (April 27th), and if it turns out to be 'too hot,' it could see the cash rate in Australia jump by 25 to 50 bps at the May meeting.

The AUD/USD has moved down from its early-April peak when the price hit above 76c. The previous trend line has pivoted to the pressure level that will limit the sky of the pair from the mid-term perspective. Current support can be found near 0.7345 while the next major support will be looking at the 100-day MA. Imminent pressure comes from the 0.7397 level which is in line with the early-March high and the current 50-day MA.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 bounced back from its lowest close in April, with all 11 main industry groups advancing except for energy. Looking at the daily chart, the recent bounce has pulled the index out from its descending tunnel thus placing the 20- and 100-days MA for the next goal.

The RSI, which is momentarily pointing up is also supporting the buyers who are looking for short-term gain. Long-term, the weekly chart has shown that great pressure would have to come from the previous upward trend line and as a result, investors should expect a major test ahead near the level around 4682.

Natural gas

Natural gas surged to a 13-year high earlier this week. The months-long hike was driven by a global fuel crunch as supply struggled to meet a post-pandemic surge in demand which was further exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine. For the near-term outlook, the momentum for vital energy should stay valid even though the price pulled back a bit on Tuesday. From a technical point of view, the next support can be found near $6.698 while the price may keep edging up and bring the highs in 2008 back insight.

Netflix

Netflix stock plunged 26% after reporting its first subscriber decline in more than a decade. The streaming king unexpectedly lost 200,000 viewers in the first three months of 2022, fanning investors’ fears that a post-pandemic economy will turn to be the headwind for the industry.

According to the weekly chart, the tumble sent the price back to the level in 2019 and should the momentum continue to sour, the next stop will be looking at the low in Dec 2018, around $253. The March low at $344 will be the first challenge if the entertainment giant aims for a rebound.

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