Nasdaq closes at a fresh record, Dow and DAX stall

Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

A lack of upside movement for the Dow meant a conformist buy breakout strategy failed off of yesterday's 1st Resistance level, aiding contrarian sell instead as its bull trend technical overview continues to stall and fails to mimic the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Amongst its components, Pfizer was the outperformer with the biggest percentage gain after it reported positive data from its early stage coronavirus vaccine trial, but plenty of its components were in the red with Walgreens at the very bottom, and energy giants' ExxonMobil and Chevron not that far off. Daily coronavirus cases in the US have crossed the 50,000 mark, and hopes of further fiscal stimulus have failed to subside with monetary expectations of a pledge of low interest rates out of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) following its latest minutes. In terms of data, it's a big day with Non-Farm Payrolls expected to show gains after last month's controversial reading, and following an increase in API's reading yesterday.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Dow

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Unlike the Dow, conformist breakout strategies outperformed as the tech-heavy Nasdaq powered higher to a record close. Biopharmaceutical company Amgen was the outperformer here after winning a patent battle against Novartis, followed by Netflix in second with more positive reviews from stock analysts following a recent hire. A lot of attention went to Tesla whose share price hit a fresh record high and overtook Toyota as the world's largest carmaker by market worth, rising in after-hours and ahead of its delivery and production numbers set for release later today. But there were plenty of its components finishing lower including tech company Xilinx's share price retracing back down after its surge earlier this week, and Western Digital.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq

In sentiment, the lack of a retracement has meant retail short bias has surged to a heavy short 74%, far higher than any other index in this report as longs get tempted into unwinding.

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with the FTSE, the outperforming strategy for the German DAX was a conformist buy-on-reversal off of yesterday's 1st Support level, its price crossing but failing to close below its 200-day moving average. Health care company Fresenius was the outperformer followed by Beiersdorf, but in the end most of its components finished lower with Wirecard once again registering the biggest percentage change and this time around at the very bottom. Continental and Vonovia were hardest hit amongst the rest. In German data, manufacturing out of Markit beat expectations and employment data certainly was upbeat even if its unemployment rate worsened, and we'll get final services data tomorrow.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for DAX

As for trader bias, once again a relative lack of change in price has translated into an unchanged majority short 59% sell bias amongst retail traders as of this morning.

DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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