NASDAQ: Intel share price and Q4 earnings results preview

When are Intel results expected?

Intel is set to release its fourth quarter (Q4) 2022 results on 26 January 2023 after the closing bell. The results are for the fiscal quarter ending December 2022.

What is ‘The Street’s’ expectation for the Q4 2022 results?

Wall Street’s expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:

Revenue of $14,468 billion : -24.07% year on year (YoY)

Earnings per share (EPS): $0.20 (-81.65% YoY)

‘The Street’ expects challenging results for the struggling semiconductor company as it grapples with the current difficult economic environment and has to contend with the most aggressive US Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking cycle in decades and last year’s China’s zero-Covid-19 policy which put pressure on growth.

Lacklustre data centre demand due to lower cloud spending by the likes of Alphabet, Amazon and Google Cloud and weaker global PC demand are expected to weigh on the chipmaker’s results and first quarter forward guidance.

According to Reuters Eikon, Intel’s Q4 2022 revenue is expected to be cut by approximately a quarter and its pre-tax profit by around 80%, leading to an expected to drop in its EPS by over 80% to 20 cents from $1.09 in Q4 2021.

Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘hold’ for Intel – 1 strong buy, 3 buy and 25 hold, 8 sell and 4 strong sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $29.00 for the share, around which it is currently trading (as of 23/01/2023).

How to trade Intel into the results

IG sentiment data shows that 98% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 23 January 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 2% of clients expect the price to fall.

63% of clients who trade the share sold it this month and 75% this week.

Since April 2021 the Intel share price has been tumbling, dropping by over 60% to its October 2022 low, but since then has been stabilising and is trying to reach its November peak at $31.34, a weekly chart close above which would be technically critical in that it would confirm a bottoming formation.

In this scenario the February 2018 to October 2020 lows at $42.04 to $43.61 may be revisited in 2023 but should prove difficult to overcome. Nonetheless such an advance could potentially lead to a 50% rise in Intel’s share price.

From a technical perspective the share price will remain medium-term bearish and short-term neutral while it stays below the November high at $31.34 on a daily chart closing basis, however.

Were key support between the October and December lows at $25.35 to $24.59 to be fallen through on a daily chart closing basis, the April-to-December 2021 lows at $19.36 to $19.16 could be in the firing line.