Nvidia Q3 earnings report sees muted market reaction as Q4 outlook underwhelms
Nvidia's Q3 2025 earnings report surpassed forecasts, but a lackluster Q4 outlook led to a share price dip, sparking concerns over rising production costs.
Nvidia Q3 2025: modest beat, subdued market reaction
In trading, highly anticipated events often underdeliver, and Nvidia's third-quarter (Q3) 2025 earnings announcement this morning was no exception.
Despite reporting its fifth consecutive earnings beat, Nvidia’s shares fell 5% initially before recovering to close about 2% lower at $143.00 in after-hours trading.
Pre-earnings market expectations
Before the results, the options market anticipated significant volatility, pricing in a 7.8% post-announcement move. This implied a potential swing of approximately $11.50 from Nvidia’s previous close of $145.89.
Based on these expectations, a strong report might have pushed the stock above $157.00, while a weaker outcome could have sent it below $135.00.
Earnings highlights
Let's examine the key figures to understand why the report failed to inspire a large move in either direction.
- Revenue: $35.08 billion vs. $33.16 billion expected
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $0.81 vs. $0.75 expected
- Data centre revenue: $30.8 billion vs. $29.1 billion expected
- Fourth quarter (Q4) revenue outlook: $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%
Nvidia’s Q3 2025 summary
Market reaction
Despite the earnings beat, Nvidia’s Q4 revenue guidance of $37.5 billion only modestly exceeded consensus expectations and fell short of the $41 billion projected by the most optimistic analysts.
Additionally, concerns persist about rising production and engineering costs associated with Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips, which could compress profit margins.
CEO commentary
Nvidia’s chief executive officer (CEO), Jensen Huang, commented, 'The age of artificial intelligence (AI) is in full swing, driving a global transition to Nvidia computing.'
The question remains whether investors will embrace this long-term vision or remain cautious due to concerns about growth and margins.
Nvidia's outlook
Nvidia technical analysis
After its astonishing rally in 2024, Nvidia’s share price hit a fresh record high of $149.77 two weeks ago before a modest pullback to Monday's low of $137.15.
We expect dips in Nvidia’s share price to be well supported initially near $130.00 before medium-term support at $112 - $110. The latter support band comes from the uptrend from the January $47.32 low, reinforced by the 200-day moving average at $110.00.
Providing both support levels mentioned above hold on a sustained basis, the uptrend in Nvidia's share price is expected to resume, leading to a break of $150.00 before a move towards $165.00.
Nvidia daily chart
- Source: TradingView. Figures are as of 21 November 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be considered as containing financial product advice or financial product recommendations.
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