Nvidia share price and Q4 earnings results preview
What to expect and how to trade Nvidia’s upcoming results from a fundamental and technical perspective.
When are Nvidia’s results expected?
Nvidia is set to release its third quarter (Q4) 2022 results on 22 February 2023. The results are for the fiscal quarter ending January 2023.
What is ‘The Street’s’ expectation for the Q4 results?
‘The Street’ expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:
Revenue of $6,006 billion : -21.42% year on year (YoY)
Earnings per share (EPS): $0.81 (-61.50% YoY)
The Nvidia share price is expected to be boosted by the company’s highly anticipated launch of its new RTX 4070 graphics card, its RTX Video Super Resolution being integrated into the next Chrome and Edge browser updates and the launch of its Nvidia GeForce RTX 4090 processor.
The rumoured launch of Nvidia’s RTX 4070 graphics card in April, which is apparently currently being mass produced, and its new top of the range RTX 4090 mobile GPU, likely set to become the fastest mobile GPU for gaming, should boost Nvidia’s revenues which had been under pressure due to new US trade rules and export limitations introduced in 2022.
The fact that Chrome 110 on 7 February and also Microsoft Edge will integrate Nvidia’s RTX Video Super Resolution in their latest updates, letting anyone with a GeForce RTX 30 or 40 series GPU experience upscaled video with a noticeable improvement in image quality in both browsers, should also lead to more sales of the company’s chips and positively contribute to its bottom line.
How to trade Nvidia into the results
Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Nvidia – 10 strong buy, 19 buy and 13 hold and 1 sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $200.00 for the share, roughly 11% lower than the current price (as of 8 February 2023).
IG sentiment data shows that 80% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 8 February 2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 20% of clients expect the price to fall whereas trading activity over this week and month showed 52% of sells.
Nvidia – technical view
The Nvidia share price has been rising by close to 55% since the beginning of the year and did so for six consecutive weeks with the share trading above the $192.74 to $208.90 key resistance area since last week, confirming that a long-term bottom has been formed.
The resistance zone, now because of inverse polarity support zone, is made up of the October 2021, January-to-March 2022 lows and the May and August 2022 highs.
The Nvidia share is about to reach its $230.43 August 2021 peak and the April 2022 price gap at $227.77 to $230.62, above which lurk the February 2022 high at $269.25 and the March 2022 peak at $289.46.
An immediate upside bias will remain in play while this week’s low at $207.86 underpins on a daily chart closing basis and the share remains within its six-week uptrend channel.
The short-term 2023 uptrend will stay intact while the second to last reaction low, made on the 31st of January at $189.50, underpins on a daily chart closing basis.
Only a drop through $189.50 would probably spell the end of the October-to-February uptrend and could lead to swift slide back towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $161.70 taking place.
Were the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $161.70 to be slipped through, however, the $108.13 October trough would be back in the picture, together with the minor psychological $100 mark, and the March 2020 pandemic low at $89.00.
Summary
Nvidia is set to release Q4 2022 results on 22 February 2023.
Q4 2022 results are expected to show a 21.42% YoY decrease in revenue and a 61.50% decrease in EPS.
Revenue is expected to be boosted by the company’s new graphics cards and video upscaling software which will feature in future Chrome and Edge browser updates.
Long-term broker consensus suggests the share to currently be a ‘buy’, with a median price target of $200.00, roughly 11% lower than the current price.
80% of IG’s clients with open positions are long the share but trading activity this week and month shows 52% of sells.
The Nvidia share price has been rising by around 55% in six straight weeks since the beginning of the year and remains within a medium-term uptrend, provided that the late January low at $189.50 underpins.
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