Oil and gold prices gap higher

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Although gold prices went past key Daily and Weekly levels last week, follow-through was limiting and in turn gave contrarian strategies the edge on the Daily time frame on a failed attempt to get past short-term 1st Support levels, while offering some to Weekly conformist breakouts to the downside. Yields are getting all the attention with a stronger jobs report also offering hopes of improved economic recovery, a stronger dollar in the FX market also a factor to consider. From a technical standpoint, it’s a shift in the overview for the Daily as all its key indicators flash red, while the Weekly is showing negative technical bias but where reversals may not always outperform especially on any significant fundamental updates, a move well into the $1600s not ruled out at this stage.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Gold

Meanwhile, CoT bias has dropped to 78% long on a bit 18,548 lot reduction in long positions with shorts rising 7,547 lots (silver CoT drops to 68%, platinum 78%).

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It was a big week for oil prices, the key item that took oil traders by surprise was the OPEC+ agreement that aside from small exemptions to a couple of its members extended output cuts into April, the 150K bpd increase far less than 1.5m bpd expectations, a crucial item Saudi Arabia's decision to maintain its unilateral and voluntary 1m bpd cut through next month. Oil price forecasts were raised as a result, stronger NFP also giving it a boost, a $1.9tn stimulus now getting closer to being signed, and rising geopolitical tensions. In oil data, Baker Hughes oil rig count for the US rose to 403. Both conformist buy-on-reversal off of its previous 1st Support level and buy-breakout off of last week's Weekly 1st Resistance level outperformed, Daily breakouts late last week getting the clear edge.

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IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Oil WTI

As for sentiment, CoT speculator bias is extreme buy and unchanged at 80%, over on the retail side the slight sell 54% bias rising to a heavy 63%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

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