Oil prices gap higher, gold prices partially recover off the lows

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The big break finally came for gold prices, in the process aiding conformist breakout strategies sizably on both the Daily and Weekly time frames, tilting most of its short-term Daily technical indicators into the red, a negative DMI cross occurring on the Weekly. With US yields rising, the greenback finally enjoyed a relative day of strength, economic data out of the US relatively bullish but where market participants await any central bank update regarding the moves in the bond market. And while gold suffered, the pain wasn't as harsh as platinum and palladium which took on heavier percentage losses for the week, silver lightly outperforming.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, CoT speculators reduced gold long positions by 19,502 lots vastly outdoing a 266 lot drop in shorts, the bias still extreme at 81% (CoT silver is buy 72%, platinum 80%, palladium dropping to just 52% long). Retail bias is 89% long for gold, 93% for silver, and 88% for platinum.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The moves got more volatile on Friday for oil prices, though in all for the week it was conformist buy-breakout strategies on the breach of its Weekly 1st Resistance level that outperformed, the Daily more tested, its Thursday 1st Support level held to aid conformist buy-on-reversal, it fell through on Friday's plummet as the greenback surged in the FX market with contrarian sell-breakout outperforming. In oil data, US active oil rigs out of Baker Hughes showed an increase to 309 from 305 prior, though in the background we've got geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a volatile greenback focused on the bond market, Johnson & Johnson's one-dose vaccine approved, the $1.9tn stimulus passing the House, and oil traders noting the big OPEC+ meeting later this week. Any significant changes for the last fundamental event could result in moves beyond key levels with ease.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Oil WTI

As for trader bias, CoT speculators remain extreme buy, retail slight sell.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

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