Oil prices plummet ahead of OPEC+ meeting

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Oil WTI technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

We finally got a cleaner break for oil prices that went beneath both its previous support levels and gave conformist breakout strategies the edge, this time without testing breakout strategies as it did the day before where support levels initially gave contrarian reversals a chance. Prices also crossed beneath the last of its main short-term daily moving averages, with a negative DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross occurring and testing its short-term narrative of what may have been classified as a stalling bull trend (the overview remained volatile throughout this period in both daily and weekly time frames).

Oil data didn't help with EIA's (Energy Information Administration) inventory readings showing a 3.3 million build (close but below the 3.6 million build according to American Petroleum Institute), gasoline down 1.5 million while distillate up 2.2 million, and the resumption of nuclear deal talks on November 29 remains the last clear wild card in terms of offering a significant amount of oil supply to the markets within a short period of time.

However, for now, we've got the JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) and OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus) meetings today, expectations are for the 400,000 incremental increases to remain unchanged.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI

As for trader bias, retail traders are going into the event with a slight buy 53% bias having shifted from a majority short 58% yesterday. CoT (Commitment of Traders) speculators according to last Friday’s report showed they remain a consistent extreme buy 81% in the energy commodity.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

^{*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.}

^{**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.}