Oil prices plummet on weaker US data and variant concerns

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Gold technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Although the dollar didn't necessarily underperform in the FX market, the significant drop in US yields to push real yields further into record low negative territory hasn't given gold prices the jump traders have been expecting, as US data disappoints and shows peak growth.

Inflationary expectations have also been subsiding as bottlenecks in production drop, and Fed voting member Waller discusses a potential central bank announcement in September on tapering if the next two job reports (the first of which is this Friday) showed significant gains. The pullback for silver was only slightly more and has kept the gold/silver ratio in the 71 handle, while Platinum and Palladium both finished higher. Lower impacting US data tonight and more Fed speak, but if the former disappoints and the latter comes off as more hawkish than expected this could tilt risk appetite once more.

IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold

Retail bias is unchanged and extreme buy, and that’s also the case for both platinum and palladium.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Moves like yesterday remind us why the technical overview on the daily is volatile with net outperformance for breakout strategies instead of reversals, in what was already a break in its weekly first support level at the start of the week where the technical overview is a stalling bull trend -conformist strategies for the weekly include buying the level on reversal, which didn't occur as it broke through without retracing back up to the level.

The technical boxes here are anything but green in contrast to the weekly, with a negative DMI cross occurring in this time frame and prices moving beneath a key moving average. Coronavirus curbs as cases are on the verge of crossing 200m and slowing economic growth following yesterday's data are the negative concerns, geopolitical tensions as always a wild card. We've got API's inventory readings tonight after last week's figure was near EIA's the following day.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI

As for retail sentiment, it has shifted from majority sell 56% to slight buy.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

^{*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.}

^{**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.}