Oil prices surge, retail bias shifts again

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Early gains in gold prices yesterday failed to reach either end of its key Weekly pivot points thus far, and despite weakness in the US dollar, the risk-on in equities sent safe haven into retreat and dented the precious metal's price for a slightly lower finish. It's still quite volatile considering it's only the start of the week, and we've got plenty of fundamental items to contend with including the US Federal Reserve's Chair Powell testifying later today that could influence both the greenback and overall risk appetite. The technical overview remains bullish with all its key technical indicators flashing green, but technicals hold less relevance in the face of fundamental forces.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, retail long bias has increased as fresh longs initiated anticipating further gains, rising a few notches to a heavy long 74% and still well below that of institutional traders holding an extreme long 89% bias.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Silver didn't just outperform against gold prices, but managed to finish significantly higher and take its price past the last of its main moving averages, the 200-day MA. All its key technicals are flashing green following the move, but we've been here plenty of times before. The gold/silver ratio has finally started coming down with greater momentum, dropping from 110 to 101 over the past few sessions and further away from the record high 126 recorded back in March. The technical overview is an initializing bull trend on the daily, and on the Weekly its price crossed above yesterday's 1st Resistance level to aid conformist breakout strategies.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

As for retail trader bias, they remain in extreme long territory but have dropped to 86%, and where the bulk of those longs have been initiated at a far higher price and are in need of further upside movement.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It was another consecutive significant day for oil prices, its price breaching its Weekly 1st Resistance level with ease to aid conformist breakout strategies in line with its volatile technical overview on both the Weekly and Daily after what has been a testing period for oil prices. API's (American Petroleum Institute) oil inventories estimate will be released tonight, though following last week's contrast with EIA's estimate which showed a deficit instead of an expected surplus the following day means some oil traders may wait for the latter's estimate before deciding on a longer-term trade.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

A price increase usually entices longs into getting out and shorts into initiating, but retail traders anticipating a trend have done the opposite shifting the bias from a slight short 52% at the start of the week to a majority long 55% as of this morning.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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