OPEC+ are expected to increase crude oil production, but when and by how much?

When is the OPEC+ meeting

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) is scheduled to meet on the 1 July 2021 to discuss the future of oil production amongst its members. OPEC+ has been guiding a gradual easing of supply curbs in place in lieu of an improving global economic recovery and in turn increasing demand side assumptions.

The meetings which will run throughout the day are expected to produce outcomes into the evening (GMT).

What to expect from the OPEC+ meeting

OPEC+ has previously forecast an increase in demand of around 5.89 million barrels per day in the second half of 2021. The group has already committed to increasing supply ‘gradually’ by a little more than 2 million barrels per day from May through to July.

Markets are expecting a further tapering of supply curbs to be announced for the start of August. Consensus estimates suggest that these curbs could amount to another 500,000 barrels per day of production.

How will oil prices react to the OPEC+ news?

Should the further easing of supply curbs at the start of August be realised around consensus (500,000 barrels per day), oil prices are expected to have a muted response to the news. Should an earlier than expected tapering of output curbs be announced (i.e. starting in July 2021 rather than August 2021) and/or a higher than expected production increase manifest, oil prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term. A slower than expected output increase or delay to an increase in production would on the other hand be bullish for oil markets.

Brent crude oil – technical analysis

Brent crude has now started to pullback from overbought territory after making new short-term highs. The pullback is currently finding support at the lower level of our channel (dotted red lines).

The longer-term trend remains up. In lieu of this, we are not looking to short the current move lower. We are however also not looking to go long, up until outcomes from the all-important OPEC+ meetings are signalled to the market.

Higher and sooner than expected production increases are likely to see renewed decline and brent crude prices moving back towards the 7110 mark.

Lower and later than expected production increases could see short term gains renewed with the recent high and channel resistance being tested.

Summary

• OPEC+ will meet on the 1 July 2021 to decide the fate of future crude oil production
• Markets are expecting supply curbs to be eased further from the beginning of August 2021
• Supply increases of crude oil are expected to be realised at an extra 500,000 barrels per day
• Oil prices are expected to trade relatively muted should an output increase be realised at or around consensus
• Higher and earlier than expected production increase could be negative for oil prices in the short term
• Lower and later than expected production increases could be positive for oil prices in the short term
• The long-term trend for oil remains up, although we are currently seeing a short term correction from overbought territory