Countdown to Pfizer's Q2 earnings: historical share price reactions and forecasts

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When is Pfizer reporting?

Pfizer Inc. is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, 30 July at 8.45pm (AEST) before US markets open.

Pfizer a leading global biopharmaceutical company, continues to drive growth despite its smaller size after restructuring. The company boasts a diverse portfolio of innovative drugs and vaccines, backed by a robust late-stage pipeline. This article explores historical data of Pfizer's share price movements over various periods following earnings announcements, offering valuable insights for investors and traders.

Q2 key financials

Q2 2024 forecast

• Expected revenue: $13.22 billion
• Year-over-year increase: 3.8%
• Expected EPS: $0.46
• EPS revised: 1.17% higher over last 30 days

Comparison to Q1 2024

• Revenue: $14.9 billion
• EPS: $0.55
• Adjusted diluted EPS: $0.82.

Post-earnings performance analysis

• Immediate reactions (one day)

Pfizer's share price shows moderate volatility on the day after earnings announcements. Q1 2024 exhibited the most significant positive reaction of approximately 6%. The average one-day performance is generally positive, with most quarters showing an upward movement, indicating initial optimism from investors.

• Short-term adjustments (one week)

Within a week following earnings, share price movements become less pronounced but still show variability. Both positive and negative adjustments are observed, with Q1 2024 maintaining a strong positive trend. The one-week performance is more mixed compared to immediate reactions, suggesting a period of market reassessment.

• Medium-term trends (one month)

One month after earnings, Pfizer's stock demonstrates the highest volatility among all time frames. Q1 2022 experienced the largest positive movement of about 8%, while Q4 2022 saw a significant decline of roughly 8%. The one-month performance shows a tendency to reverse initial trends, with several quarters exhibiting opposite directions from their one-day movements.

• Overall patterns

Short-term market reactions to Pfizer's earnings reports tend to be positive, but the direction and magnitude of movements become less predictable over time. Longer-term movements often diverge from initial reactions, suggesting the market recalibrates its expectations after early enthusiasm or disappointment. Recent quarters, particularly Q1 2024, have shown more consistent positive reactions across all time frames.

• Implications for investors

The analysis suggests that while Pfizer's earnings often spark initial market optimism, this sentiment can shift significantly within a month. Investors might find opportunities for short-term gains immediately following earnings releases but should approach longer-term holdings with caution. The variability in medium-term performance indicates that factors beyond earnings reports, such as broader market conditions or company-specific news, play a significant role in Pfizer's stock performance in the weeks following announcements.

Pfizer post-earnings performance chart