Technical bias for gold, silver, and oil turns further bullish, buoyed by fundamentals

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As far as bullish moves go, gold prices certainly enjoyed a fourth consecutive week of gains with the bulk of those gains down to Friday’s moves following a rise in geopolitical tensions aiding the safe haven precious metal. The short-term daily outlook is a bull trend with its price at a significant mid-term resistance level, while the weekly outlook has shifted to an initializing bull trend. However, there are key factors to keep in mind that would test conformist strategies, as the gains have been based on geopolitical tensions, and volatile breakout strategies may be more ideal should tensions continue to rise (or abate).

IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold

In terms of sentiment, retail bias has dropped from last Monday's heavy long 66% bias to a more moderate 62% as longs get enticed into taking profit and a few daring shorts initiate at the pivot point.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

While silver was tested relative to gold with the gold/silver ratio surging following an increase in appetite for the safe haven precious metal, it did manage to finish higher against the greenback and keep its daily technical overview of a bull trend intact as it tries to breach its mid-term resistance level. On the weekly however, while the technical bias is clearly positive, reversals off of last week’s Weekly 1^st Resistance level was more ideal, as pivot points holding in the mid-term entice conformist technical strategies over contrarian ones.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver

As for bias, extreme long bias remains just that, and little changed on last week's 91% bias.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Friday’s EIA (Energy Information Administration) estimate with regards to US weekly changes in oil inventories showed a massive 11.5M deficit that outdid Tuesday's API drawdown of 7.8M. That was combined with a Baker Hughes US oil rig count that dropped to 670 from 677 prior. Those alone would entice bullish price moves in oil, but the real move occurred with rising geopolitical tensions in the oil-rich (and oil-exporting) Middle East, which sent its price surging on Friday and in line with its daily overview of a bull trend that had been stalling previously and within its bull trend channel. On the weekly overview however, while there was positive technical bias the net result was a reversal off of last week’s Weekly 1^st Resistance level, and hence the overview on weekly pivot points remains consolidatory but where contrarian breakout strategies clearly can’t be ruled out in light of recent events.

IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

As for sentiment, we don't get the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) figures until tomorrow, with retail sentiment in majority short territory dropping from a heavy 69% closer to the middle at 56%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

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