美国通膨挥之不去，台股大盘“双顶”压力不减
联准会高利率预期压制股市。本周包括美国CPI在内的一众通膨数据出炉，或指引受到双顶型态影响的台股大盘表现。
Tips
台股大盘指数走势的分析主要看重五方面因素：
- 美国联准会(FED)货币政策变动导致的美股、美元走势变化
- 以台积电(TSMC)为代表的大盘权重股基本面和股价变化
- 技术走势
- 台海局势走向
- 突发消息或事件
美国通膨数据来袭，市场聚焦回升幅度
市场持续追踪联准会(美联储)利率走向。7月美国通胀回升引起投资者对联准会较长时间维持高利率环境的担忧，美元强势上涨、股市情绪不振。
本周美国将发布CPI、PPI和零售销售等一系列通胀数据，市场关注美国通膨率的回升幅度。若在油价上涨的背景下，美国通膨率大幅上升或强化市场对美联储加息的预期，降息时间将继续被推迟，这将有利于美元上涨、股市面临相当大的回调风险。
AI（人工智能）在高利率环境的影响下继续降温，不利于美股和台股的反弹。高利率意味着融资成本大幅上升，科技企业的利润率将受到冲击，估值遭遇修正。今年美股逆周期上涨完全是因为AI热潮，随着科技股出现泡沫，投资者买入热情下降，近期更是出现减持。这大大抑制了美股的上行动能，进而不利于台股大盘表现。
除美联储货币政策走向之外，AI热潮何时回归很大程度上决定台积电和台股走势。
苹果与美国科技股加大对台积电(2330.TW)的影响
台积电持续为苹果等美国科技股提供芯片。本周三1:00（GMT+8）苹果公司将召开秋季发布会，新款Iphone机型将亮相。苹果新机的出货量将对短期台积电营收构成影响，应关注苹果相关的数据和股价表现。
台股大盘：聚焦指数在16600下方表现
台指继续运行在16600双顶颈线位下方，承压之势较为明显。失守16600面临加速跌向16000-15800的风险，这里是双顶的目标位；若能收复16600并企稳，台指或能回归17000上方强势整理，增加上破17300的可能。策略上方宜考虑做空为主、做多为辅。
（Arthur 撰）
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