AMD Q4 2024 earnings preview: how AMD is standing up to NVIDIA in the AI race
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gears up to announce its Q4 2024 results, highlighting a continued growth trajectory and its competitive stance in the burgeoning AI chip sector against rivals like NVIDIA.
When is AMD reporting?
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is set to report its fourth quarter (Q4) and full-year 2024 results after the US market closes on Wednesday, 5 February at 8.15am AEDT.
Q4 2024 earnings expectations
- Revenue: $7.5 billion, up 17.6% YoY from Q3's $6.82 billion
- Gross margin: 51.5% non-GAAP, highlighting AMD's focus on high-performance computing and AI
- EPS: $0.92, aligning with Q3 2024 market expectations
What to watch for
Wall Street analysts will focus on AMD's guidance for 2025, particularly regarding AI-related revenue projections. The company faces heightened competition in this rapidly evolving sector, not only from its US peers but also from China. The emergence of new players and technologies, such as China’s DeepSeek's efficient AI models, could influence the competitive landscape and pricing dynamics in the semiconductor industry.
AMD's ability to maintain its growth trajectory while competing with established players like NVIDIA and emerging technologies will be scrutinised by investors. This includes both technical capabilities and cost-effectiveness. Market participants will look for updates on AMD's product roadmap and strategy for maintaining competitiveness in the AI chip market.
- AMD's strategic positioning
The Data Centre segment is expected to be a key growth driver for AMD's Q4 results. This division has benefited from increasing demand for AI-capable processors.
- Competitive landscape heats up
Recent industry developments, including the emergence of DeepSeek's cost-effective AI assistant R1, have intensified competition in the AI chip market. This could impact AMD's market position and pricing power.
- Tracking AMD's market share
Investors will closely monitor AMD's progress in gaining a share of the AI chip market, particularly in comparison to rival NVIDIA's dominant position.
Share price targets
Analysts rate the AMD share as a ‘buy’ with 12 ‘strong buy’, 24 ‘buy’, 14 ‘hold’ and one ‘sell’, one analyst having downgraded the stock from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ following Monday’s US tech sell-off (as of 29 January 2025).
AMD analyst ratings
Analyst ratings and market reactions AMD’s TipRanks Smart Score of ‘4 Neutral’ has also been lowered to ‘3 Underperform’ since Monday but is still rated as a ‘buy’ by analysts with 21 ‘buy’, 10 ‘hold’ and one ‘sell’ recommendation, unchanged since earlier this week (as of 29 January 2025).
TipRanks smart score rating
AMD's share price performance has shown significant volatility leading up to earnings, reflecting broader market uncertainty about AI chip demand and AI competition from China.
AMD versus peers 5-day share price performance comparison chart
Technical analysis
The stock's reaction to earnings could set the tone for semiconductor sector performance in early 2025. Technical analysts are watching a key support zone, comprising the 200-week simple moving average at $115.29 and the mid-January low at $114.41, to see whether these can hold on a weekly chart closing basis.
Potential for a Bullish Reversal
A weekly chart close below the mid-January low of $114.41 would highlight the May 2022 peak at $109.50, as well as the August 2022 and March 2023 highs at $104.59 to $102.43. For a bullish reversal to be seen, a rise and weekly close above the 22 January high at $125.65 would need to occur. Only then would the 55-day simple moving average at $130.11 and the early January high at $131.71 come into view.
AMD weekly chart
A rise above the current January high of $131.71, though less likely than a further decline in the AMD share price, could lead to the 200-day simple moving average and November peak at $148.68 to $150.71 being reached over the coming months. Along the way, the December peak at $144.12 may offer interim resistance. As long as no advance above the early January high at $131.71 is seen, the October to January downtrend remains intact.
Trading volumes have increased ahead of the announcement, suggesting strong market interest in the United States technology sector and in AMD's quarterly performance.
AMD daily chart
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