Calm before potential volatility for Dow, Nasdaq, and DAX

Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Another fresh record high for the Dow last Friday, though within its previously Weekly levels and only one day (Friday) going clearly beyond Daily levels, which shows that even though it’s a clear bull trend technical overview where most of its technical boxes flash green, upside intraday momentum beyond key levels remains a tough task. Honeywell, UnitedHealth, and Salesforce relatively outperformed on Friday, Johnson & Johnson (vaccine under review at EMA, clinics cite "adverse reactions") and Walgreensin the bottom. As for US data late last week, unemployment claims disappointed with its previous revised to a worse figure, and both PPI and wholesale inventories were above estimates.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Dow

CoT bias is still majority short though has dropped as an increase in longs by 2,099 lots outdid an 851 lot increase in shorts, while retail bias starts off the week near extreme sell territory.

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Consecutive gains for the tech-heavy index, and back near the highs in moves that gave conformist breakouts the edge on a breach of its previous Weekly 1st Resistance level, and offering less on the Daily late last Thursday as intraday momentum remains relatively weak, the halting of yield gains a definite plus for the sensitive tech sector. Align Technology, Amazon(Alabama union effort defeated), and Apple relatively outperformed amongst its components, the losses heavy for Chinese companies like Baidu and JD.com. Economic data that might influence yields this week includes CPI, though in all the inflows haven't stopped for equities in general.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Nasdaq

CoT speculators were a bit stung on the upside movement given they shifted to majority short, since then they've been moving back and are now only slight sell 54% with an increase in longs by 1,869 lots outdoing a much smaller 175 lot increase in shorts.

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Very rangebound movement for the German DAX last week, failing to reach either of its previous Weekly and Daily levels, and where both time frames continue to enjoy technical boxes flashing green and price near the highs keeping its technical overview bullish and stalling heavily, especially when factoring in a lack of upside movement beyond key levels even on days where it enjoys a positive finish. Delivery Hero and Deutsche Post relatively outperformed amongst its components, though plenty in the red on Friday with the losses heaviest for Continental and Deutsche Wohnen. As for German data, industrial production and trade disappointed, the former suffering another contraction while the surplus of the latter was well below estimates, political news pointing to further curbs.

IG client^*sentiment for DAX

CoT bias for US indices is majority short Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell. As for retail sentiment for the DAX, it starts off the week out of extreme sell territory thanks to the slight pullback off intraweek highs, but is still very much close to extreme levels.

DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

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