Fresh record highs for Dow and DAX test majority buy traders

Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Fresh record highs for the Dow, though the price gains were (once again) with Weekly levels and failed to offer a play, Thursday's boost aiding conformist breakout strategies on the Daily time frame, though there too it has been somewhat of a rare occurrence to get prices beyond key levels in intraday movement. Boeing was in the very bottom amongst the handful in the red (subcontractor countersuit, unconfirmed report that more electrical problems found on 737 Max), but most of its components finished higher with the gains largest for Cisco (analyst rating upgrade to outperform) and Home Depot. Coca-Cola and IBM (both components) will be releasing their figures today.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Dow

CoT speculators meanwhile, continue to hold a majority short bias in the four US indices (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell), but while that sell bias is dropping in the other three and slight for S&P and Nasdaq, it remains highest here at 59%.

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

While price gains for the Nasdaq have meant its key technical boxes are mostly flashing green in both Daily and Weekly time frames, the lack of momentum meant it failed to reach either of its key levels on the latter, while for the former late last week briefly went beyond its previous 1st Resistance level, not offering much for both conformist and contrarian strategies. Alexion Pharmaceuticals and Monster were the outperforming components on Friday's oscillatory session, losses on the other end relatively contained for those at the bottom that included KLA-Tencor and PayPal.

IG client^* and CoT^** sentiment for Nasdaq

CoT bias is a slight sell 52% that has dropped from a previous 54% thanks to an increase in longs by 371 lots and a simultaneous drop in shorts by 286 lots. Retail bias after briefly shifting to the middle intraweek is back in majority short bias after Thursday's price gains.

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Days of oscillation followed by a big move higher, as always keeping its technical boxes flashing green in both time frames and in turn a bull trend technical overview, but where a lack of follow-through on most days making it difficult to enjoy intraday momentum. It failed to reach its previous Weekly levels, Friday's move going well past Daily resistance levels to aid conformist breakouts after successive failure to offer a play. Plenty of its components were in the green as a result, Siemens, Covestro and Daimler winning big while only Deutsche Boerse and Munich Re suffered minimal losses. Thursday's CPI figures for Germany were in line with estimates, the Bundesbank's monthly report expected to be released today.

IG client^*sentiment for DAX

As for sentiment, retail traders are feeling the squeeze most here, the bias jumping back into extreme sell territory and starting the week off at 81%, the highest of any of the indices in this report.

DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.

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