Dow fresh record close

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Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

While it might seem calm looking at the weekly chart with a fresh record close for the Wall Street and where conformist buy-on-reversal strategies outperformed on the weekly levels as its previous weekly first support level held, it was more volatile zooming into the daily (even though there buy-on-reversal weren't triggered until the recovery thereafter) in a U-turn as financials and energy on Friday outperformed. And components’ Goldman Sachs Group Inc (All Sessions), Travelers Cos Inc, and American Express Co (All Sessions) finished on top with only a couple in the red from light losses. US data late last week showed a miss for unemployment claims, consumer credit surge, and wholesale inventories edging higher. CPI tomorrow is the big one as well as earnings kickoff which will include a couple of financial components, relatively low-impacting tonight with bill and note auctions and Federal Bank speak.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow

CoT sentiment has shifted to slight buy on a reduction in shorts by 2,889 lots, longs rising by 699.

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It's been quieter and more consistent on the tech front compared to the more volatile swings in value, the US Tech 100 finishing the week higher in a time frame that failed to reach either of its key weekly levels, the daily's first support level broken on Thursday (though not activating a buy-on-reversal on the initial move) before recovering and then some on Friday. Despite Biden's big tech targeting. Reopening stocks in recovery meant hotel chain operator Marriott International Inc was an outperformer, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (upgrade by one to buy), Chinese shares like JD.com Inc and Baidu Inc - ADR (All Sessions) also hovering on top for the session partially undoing heavy losses suffered earlier in the week on the Chinese tech crackdown. On the other end, losses were heaviest for Peloton Interactive Inc and Biogen Idec Inc - Food and Drug Administration head calls for investigation into recent Alzheimer’s drug approval.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Nasdaq

CoT sentiment has shifted in the Dow from slight sell, and it's getting closer to doing so here as well, longs up by 446 lots, shorts drop by 860 lots.

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

The Germany 40 previous weekly first support level managed to hold despite the intraday volatility late last week. Conformist buy-on-reversal strategies in this time frame outperforming, while the short-term daily's technical overview that's 'consolidation-volatile' meant the uptick in volatility gave conformist strategies in that time frame the clear advantage on the breakouts, while reverting back to an average interday in line with the time frame's overview, less technical boxes flashing green compared to here. Volkswagen AG (Ord), Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and MTU Aero Engines AG enjoyed strong gains in Friday's session amongst its components, only a few in the red with Delivery Hero SE in the very bottom. As for economic data, Germany's trade surplus was a miss edging lower, and for today we'll get WPI usually of little impact.

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IG client* sentiment for the DAX

Meanwhile, retail sell bias has increased following the latest moves, starting this week off at 75% and not that far off extreme short levels. From the six indices (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, FTSE, DAX, ASX) it's only the FTSE where retail traders are holding majority buy bias. CoT sentiment for US indices is slight buy Dow and S&P, nearly in the middle for the Nasdaq, and majority sell Russell.

DAX chart with retail sentiment

^{*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.}

^{**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.}