Dow ends worst first quarter on record
Price retreat in Dow, Nasdaq, and DAX sends majority short retail bias lower.
Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It was a tough quarter for the Dow, with its worst first quarter on record losing 23% of its value, and its worst quarter overall since 1987. Most of its components were in the red, the losses greatest for American Express and Home Depot. The few outperformers included energy giants for a change, with both Chevron and ExxonMobil gaining slightly during the session as oil prices recovered slightly off the lows. That meant that as a sector, only energy gained with the rest taking losses that were largest in defensive utilities and real estate. The US has been bracing for worsening coronavirus figures in the upcoming ‘very, very painful two weeks’, though when it comes to share prices it has been monetary and fiscal stimulus aiding in putting a floor, with talk of another multi-trillion dollar stimulus package for infrastructure.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Dow
Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It wasn’t as tough a quarter for the Nasdaq, which fell more than 14% in the first quarter, a lighter fall than that of the Dow and the S&P 500. The same holds true for yesterday’s session, where the losses were less in comparison to the Dow. The losses were led by Dollar Tree which suspended its guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, and Lam Research, while the biggest gainers were NetEase and Tesla. Its price failed to reach either end of yesterday’s key pivot points, as intraday volatility dropped. Significant US data will be released today (as well as over the next two days) and could infuse more volatility in risk-related assets.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq
In sentiment, the retracement has aided majority short traders who are attempting to range-trade these levels, taking the majority sell bias lower to 59% as of today morning.
Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment
DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
There were plenty of winners and losers in the DAX but where it was mostly by relatively moderate amounts, with Deutsche Telekom at the bottom but where once again Lufthansa and MTU Aero Engines suffered losses. Outperforming during yesterday's session was Heidelberg Cement and Wirecard. As was the case with both Dow and Nasdaq, its price failed to reach either end of its key pivot points and in turn not offering a play for conformist nor contrarian strategies.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for DAX
In sentiment, retail bias has dropped slightly on yesterday’s price drop as fresh range-trading shorts attempt to unwind, with the bias at a lower majority short 56% this morning.
DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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