Weaker weekly finish for Dow, Nasdaq and DAX tests technical overviews
CoT bias remains majority short for Dow and S&P 500, long bias drops in Nasdaq.
Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The Dow's bull trend technical overview was heavily tested last week, even if buy reversal strategies were opportune on some occasions including Thursday's Daily. Its price crossed back below its 200-week moving average, but thus far has managed to remain relatively rangebound. Amongst its components, Disney finished highest on Friday followed by Home Depot and Walmart ahead of the latter’s earnings this week, at the bottom financial companies and Boeing leading the losses. Utilities and the financial sector were hit hardest, communication and consumer discretionary outperforming the most. With earnings mostly out of the way, retail giants will be in focus following last Friday's worse than expected contraction, and housing data is expected to dip tomorrow.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for the Dow
Retail bias is back in majority short territory after fresh shorts reinitiated on Thursday's move higher, while institutional bias is unchanged.
Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Nasdaq Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The drop in the Nasdaq last week wasn't anywhere near as harsh as that of the Dow or DAX, and thus far its bull trend technical overview has remained intact with a conformist buy-on-reversal working out on the Weekly plenty of times. In terms of component performance, Nvidia outperformed on Friday after its CEO revealed details on new products, but plenty were in the red with Lam Research dropping the most, its Board of Directors approving a quarterly dividend.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq
Retail short bias has dropped here to 63% from the start of last week's 67% sell bias, the lack of a price drop failing to give fresh shorts a significant chance to unwind in profit. On the CoT (Commitment of Traders) front, larger speculators remain majority long here (unlike Dow and S&P 500 where they are still majority short), reducing their long bias to 54% on an increase in shorts by 2,166 lots outdoing an increase in longs by 1,286 lots.
Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment
DAX Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It certainly wasn't a positive week for the DAX, underperforming compared to US indices with a move that aided conformist volatile breakout strategies dropping below last week's Weekly 2nd Support. Its Daily technical overview of a stalling bull trend is on the verge of being undone following weeks of a lack of significant follow through, Thursday's Daily conformist strategy failing. German preliminary GDP (Gross Domestic Product) contracted by 2.2% with its previous revised to -0.1% meant the manufacturing powerhouse's economy is in a recession. Amongst its components, VW outperformed, at the bottom the familiar Wirecard suffering the most down more than 7% after its Dubai-based partner entered liquidation.
IG client* sentiment for the DAX
In sentiment, retail bias shifted to majority long intraweek as plenty of range-trading shorts were enticed into taking profit, and starts this week with a slight 51% bias.
DAX chart with retail sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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