Oil and gold CoT extreme long bias rises

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

While the Weekly buy breakout strategies yielded plenty for conformist traders with its price breaching last week's 1st Resistance level, that wasn't the case on the daily on a lack of intraday follow through that has seen its price tested at a short-term resistance level. The technical overview remains bullish, though this week three central banks (included the US Federal Reserve) will be announcing their monetary policies, and in turn could increase volatility and fundamental moves that could be in favor (or against) Gold prices.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

Both retail traders and larger speculative CoT (Commitment of Traders) are holding heavy to extreme long bias, the former rising a notch to 70% and the latter up at 90% on a greater reduction in gold long positions (by 4,354 lots) than short positions (by 1,424 lots).

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It’s a technical overview shift on the weekly for silver, with breakout strategies getting tested and pivot points failing to offer much of a play on a drop in volatility that could return this week with potential big USD moves on a US central bank announcing making technicals less relevant. That being said, a negative DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross occurred yesterday, and most of its main technical indicators remain neutral (both on the Weekly and Daily) with a non-trending ADX (Average Directional Index). Gold and silver rarely have different technical overviews for a prolonged period of time, and hence expect one to eventually give in to the other, even if it was gold that won out last week taking the gold/silver ratio higher.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

In sentiment, both retail and CoT bias are little changed, the latter down to 72% on a reduction in silver longs by 1,315 lots and an increase in shorts by 731 lots.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

While volatility conformist strategies may have failed for some products in this report, it offered plenty for oil following Monday's rollover mayhem in the May futures contract, and in turn aiding conformist breakout strategies on more than one occasion for both the Weekly and Daily pivot point breaks. In oil data, Baker Hughes showed another big drop to 378 from 438 the week before, and this week we'll get earnings from the Oil Majors including BP tomorrow, Shell on Thursday, and ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total on Friday.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Retail traders were tested heavily on the price plummet, extreme long bias of 86% pre-crash dropping to 65% at the start of this week. As for institutional traders, they have upped their extreme long bias to 83% on an increase in long positions by 35,774 lots and a simultaneous reduction in shorts by 40,737 lots.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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