Oil gaps lower this morning as travel restrictions rise
Both CoT long and short positioning drops in gold, silver and oil, trader bias remains extreme long.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Last Week’s Weekly Support levels were quickly breached on Monday aiding conformist technical overview strategies that have been a boon for short-term momentum based strategies, as the precious metal's price struggled to remain above the $1,500 mark. The latest moves have run contrary to ongoing central bank easing, with the ECB (European Central Bank), BoE (Bank of England), and RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) introducing quantitative easing and/or reducing rates last week, and is more suggesting of USD illiquidity as well as a move against extreme long traders, with retail bias at an extreme long 83% and CoT (Commitment of Traders) speculators at 90% with a reduction in gold long positions by 18,885 lots and a drop in shorts by 1,270 lots failing to move the percentage bias.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Last Monday's plummet alone was enough to aid conformist breakout strategies to the downside befitting its current volatile technical overview, with its 50-week moving average failing to cross above its 200-week moving average, and a negative DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross occurring on the weekly. Gold was the precious metal that outperformed for the week not just against silver, but also platinum and palladium, even if silver managed to outperform towards the end of the week, it couldn't completely undo the record highs in the gold/silver spread, which started the week in the 105s and ended in the 118s.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Retail bias is extreme long and heavily squeezed by the latest moves, while larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report reduced both long and short positioning, to the tune of 13,902 and 10,923 lots respectively.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices continued to move in line with its current volatile technical overview, and once again conformist sell breakout strategies were the outperforming strategy for the week (its price never reached last week’s Weekly 1st Resistance level). All its key technical indicators continue to flash red, and its 50-week moving average (MA) crossed below its 200-week MA. In oil news, the US is considering sending an energy envoy to Saudi Arabia, as regulators in Texas considered curbing production. The lower oil prices have already translated into worse oil data, with Friday’s Baker Hughes US oil rig count showing a drop to 664 from 683 prior.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
The lower price moves have continued to test oil traders, with retail bias in extreme long territory at 86% and CoT bias rising to 81% on a larger reduction in oil short positions over long positions.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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