Oil suffers on virus fears, safe haven gold finishes the week in the green
CoT and retail traders continue to hold heavy to extreme long bias in oil, gold, and silver.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The technical overview remains bullish for gold with nearly all its main technical indicators flashing green, but its price has been stalling near the highs. Geopolitical tensions aren’t the catalyst this time around, rather the corona virus that has hurt indices and aided the safe haven precious metal. Furthermore, in central bank news the ECB (European Central Bank) showed no sign of stopping its monetary easing any time soon, and the BoE (Bank of England) might reduce rates this week. Any lower rates and with bond yields tumbling and the non-yielding metal might have another leg to stand on.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail bias is little changed for the week opting to remain in heavy long territory, and the latest figures out of the CoT (Commitment of Traders) report shows the percentage at an extreme long 87% with long positioning dropping by 2,016 lots and short by 476 lots.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold outperformed for the week, but silver's gain were largely due to Friday's moves which is keeping its daily bull trend technical overview intact that has been stalling heavily, and where on the weekly its ADX (Average Directional Index) isn't showing a propensity to trend just yet even if more positive technical bias is forming.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, retail bias remains at an extreme long 88% and unchanged, moving only slightly during the week, while CoT bias has risen to a heavy long 73% as silver long positioning dropped by 1,618 lots as opposed to shorts which dropped by a larger 3,120 lots. Retail bias in other precious metals shows platinum at an extreme long 80%, and palladium at a full 100% short. CoT bias for platinum is at an extreme long 88%, and for palladium at a heavy long 73%.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It was a tough week for oil prices, plummeting past its 50-week and 200-week moving averages. It had little to do with the latest oil data releases, whereby Thursday’s EIA (Energy Information Administration) showed a slight deficit and Baker Hughes’ US oil rig count on Friday showed a slight increase to 676 from 673 prior (and we can expect those figures to get tested should oil price fail to recover). The real focus has been on the latest corona virus and its effect on travel and the general economy as it spreads. In OPEC+ news, the next meeting is in March, though the Saudi energy minister has already said all options including further cuts are on the table. The latest moves here have been due to fundamentals, and hence expect any changes on that front to cause pivot points to easily break.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
CoT bias is unchanged at an extreme long 88%, but for retail traders the bias has jumped from a previous heavy long 77% to extreme long levels at 85%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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