Retail sell bias drops in Dow, Nasdaq and DAX

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Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Wall Street didn't underperform this time around as the losses were heavier in the tech sector, price managing to recover off of its previous first support level and giving conformist buy-on-reversal strategies the edge. But the red finish meant there weren't a lot of components in the green and where the gains were limiting, most in the red with losses heaviest for Intel Corporation (AMD's revenue outlook improving indicating it'll take from its market share) and salesforce.com Inc.

In earnings amongst its components, it was an easy beat for Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp (All Sessions), Visa Inc (All Sessions), and 3M Co (All Sessions), and we've got Boeing Co (All Sessions) and McDonald's Corp (All Sessions) up next today. US data was on the pleasant side, CB's consumer confidence and Richmond's manufacturing easily beating estimates, by a lesser extent for rising house prices. Trade and wholesale inventories tonight, with all eyes on the Federal Bank thereafter, with retail traders going in with a heavy sell 74% bias.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow

Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Yesterday's pullback finally gave contrarian sell-breakout strategies the edge on a breach of its previous support levels that had narrowed following weeks of mostly limiting intraday movement, and meant conformist strategies failed, the technical overview tested in the process on a lack of upside intraday momentum on most days. Plenty of components released their figures, the key ones :

- Apple Inc which easily beat estimates but whose share price fell in after-hours on supply chain woes potentially hindering future hardware sales, and more going back to work impacting the next quarter's services

- Microsoft Corp (All Sessions) beating estimates for a tenth consecutive quarter and its most profitable one though worries over cloud services gains that offset PC sales declines

- Alphabet Inc - C (All Sessions) share price up in after-hours on a big increase in ad revenue.

Meta Platforms Inc (All Sessions), Automatic Data Processing Inc, Align Technology Inc, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp, Lam Research Corp, O'Reilly Automotive Inc, PayPal Holdings Inc (All Sessions), QUALCOMM Inc (All Sessions), and Xilinx Inc are up next.

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IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Nasdaq

Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment

DAX technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with the FTSE, a breach of its previous first support level with a move closer to its second level, in the process giving conformist breakout strategies intraday the relative outperformance even if it partially retraced back up thereafter, and where although most of its technical boxes in this time frame are neutral hasn't translated into narrowed levels holding just yet.

There were only a handful of components in the green with SAP on top, the rest in the red with heavy losses for Delivery Hero SE and Infineon Technologies AG, auto shares not that far off with Volkswagen AG (Ord) leading the losses amongst that sector. A lack of German data to go on, but that changes with GfK's consumer climate and import prices out of Destasis, both usually of relatively little impact, all eyes thereafter shifting to the US central bank tonight to shape the next phase of risk appetite.

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IG client* sentiment for the DAX

The pullback across the board has been a positive for retail traders, and here they're out of heavy sell territory and at 62%.

DAX chart with retail sentiment

^{*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.}

^{**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.}