Federal Reserve meeting
Everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announcement – including when it is, and why it’s important.
With Chinese markets under pressure and the Fed hiking rates, Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, talks to IGTV’s Victoria Scholar about the parallels in global markets between 2015 and 2018.
Victoria Scholar @VictoriaS_IG
Analyst, London
Friday 29 June 2018 09:43
Chinese equities under pressure, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking rates and the greenback gaining steam. Sound familiar? The latest research note from Longview Economics states the case for why 2018 is (so far) playing out in similar ways to 2015.
China’s central bank guided the yuan midpoint lower for the sixth trading session in a row, sending the currency down to the lowest level in six months, while the stock market slumped to two-year lows this week. Meanwhile, over in the United States, the dollar is on the rise inching closer to a one-year high and the Fed is firmly in monetary policy tightening mode. In December 2015, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in over nine years while the US dollar moved higher in anticipation of tightening. Meanwhile, in the summer of 2015, China’s stock market crashed from a seven-year high, shedding around 30% in a three-week sell-off following a surge of 150% in the 12 months prior.
Everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s FOMC announcement – including when it is, and why it’s important.
Longview Economics draws parallels between then and now arguing the Fed’s normalisation is ‘creating stress across the global financial landscape’, for example, flare-ups in emerging markets. Secondly, ‘European, Chinese and other emerging equity markets have quite possibly peaked for 2018’, like they did in the first half of 2015. Other ways in which 2018 is comparable to 2015 include widening credit spreads, particularly in emerging markets, and in the report there's the argument that ‘the breadth in global financial markets has narrowed over the course of the first half of 2018 – as occurred in 2015’.
Similarly to 2015, this backdrop reflects the interaction of two factors according to Longview Economics. Firstly, the report argues that the synchronised global upswing in growth has now been replaced by US-led global. Secondly, ‘the confidence and determination, especially among Fed policy makers (and other central bankers), to continue to pursue a path of monetary policy tightening’. ‘Eat, sleep, rinse, repeat’ is how Longview Economics’ CEO Chris Watling described the Fed tightening cycle. Watling told IGTV that the Fed was ‘tightening effectively’ in 2015 and now ‘that two or three-year phase has come around again’.
IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign marketing partners within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.
This information/research prepared by IGA or IG Group is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. In addition to the disclaimer above, the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.
See important Research Disclaimer.
New client: +65 6390 5133 or accountopening@ig.com.sg
Clients: Help and support
WhatsApp: Click here
IG | Sitemap | Terms and agreements | Privacy | Security | IG Community | Refer a friend | Cookies | About IG
Disclaimer:
All forms of investments carry risks and trading CFDs may not be suitable for everyone. CFDs are leveraged instruments and can result in losses that exceed deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand, and are aware of, the risks and costs involved. Refer to the Risk Disclosure Statement and Risk Fact Sheet.
IG Asia Pte Ltd (Co.Reg.No. 200510021K) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and holds a capital markets services licence for dealing in capital markets products that are over-the-counter derivatives contracts and is an exempt financial adviser.
IG provides an execution-only service. The information in this advertisement does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. You should consider your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or Belgium and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.