Key events to watch in the week ahead: 24 February – 2 March 2025

This week’s overview

The S&P 500 managed to notch fresh record closing high this week, but momentum was tempered by a cautious guidance from Walmart, which warned that profit growth would slow this fiscal year. As the largest private employer in the US and a key gauge of consumer sentiment, Walmart’s outlook has weighed on sentiments overnight.

Nevertheless, appetite for risk-taking remains largely intact, as dip buyers were quick to step in during the latter half of the session. While the market is in a period of traditionally weaker seasonality, there is a lack of bearish catalyst to trigger a wider retracement for now, with tariff concerns showing to be potentially less disruptive than initially feared while economic growth remains resilient.

Heading into the new week, here are five key events to watch.

US 4Q earnings season: Home Depot, Salesforce, NVIDIA

The US earnings season is entering its final stretch, with key reports from Home Depot, Salesforce and NVIDIA in focus.

After the initial DeepSeek scare, NVIDIA's share price has rebounded more than 20% from its 4 February 2025 low. Its upcoming results will be a crucial test of whether the stock can reclaim new record highs, with artificial intelligence (AI) demand, data centre growth, and gaming revenue under close scrutiny.

26 February 2025 (Wednesday, 8.30am SGT): Australia’s consumer price index (CPI)

The December 2024 quarter (Q4) inflation data, released in late January, came in cooler than expected. The monthly CPI indicator showed headline inflation rising 2.5% year-over-year in December, up from 2.3% in November. However, annual trimmed mean inflation eased to 2.7% from 3.2% over the same period.

Amid sluggish growth, the softer inflation backdrop enabled the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates by 25 basis points (bp) at its meeting this week. However, the central bank remained cautious, noting that future cuts would depend largely on a sustained disinflationary trend.

The preliminary forecast for January’s Monthly CPI indicator suggests headline inflation will rise to 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), the highest since August 2024.

If the March quarter inflation data—due on April 30—confirms ongoing disinflation, the RBA is likely to implement another 25 bp rate cut at its May meeting.

28 February 2025 (Friday, 7.30am SGT): Tokyo’s core CPI

Japan’s Tokyo inflation has risen for three consecutive months, with headline inflation reaching 3.4% in January and core inflation climbing to 2.5%—its highest level since March 2024. Coupled with mounting wage pressures, conditions for additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are falling in place.

Following a 25 bp rate hike in January, market expectations are now divided on whether the BoJ will implement another 25 or 50 bp worth of hikes by year-end. With Tokyo’s inflation data often seen as a leading indicator for nationwide trends, the upcoming release will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the timing of the next BoJ rate hike, currently priced for July 2025.

Tokyo core CPI is expected to ease to 2.3%, down from the 2.5% prior, signalling a slight cool-off in inflationary pressures. This could reinforce expectations that the central bank can wait a bit longer before its next rate cut, likely until July 2025.

28 February 2025 (Friday, 9.30pm SGT): US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index

Headline PCE prices in the US rose 2.6% YoY in December 2024, rising further from their three-year low of 2.1% in September.

The core PCE price index—the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation—climbed 0.2% month-over-month (MoM), in line with expectations. This keeps the annual rate steady at 2.8%, though still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Fed officials have signalled a need for further progress on inflation before considering rate cuts, while also acknowledging risks from potential trade policy shifts.

They may see that progress next week, with January’s headline PCE expected to ease to 2.5% YoY. Core PCE is projected to decline to 2.6% YoY from 2.8%, following softer-than-expected producer price index (PPI) components that feeds into core PCE.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25b p Fed rate cut in September and a total of 38bp in cuts for 2025.

1 March 2025 (Saturday, 9.30am SGT): China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

China’s January manufacturing PMI slipped back into contractionary territory, registering 49.1 and falling short of the 50.1 consensus. Non-manufacturing PMI also declined to 50.2, down from December's nine-month high of 52.2. While some of this slowdown can be attributed to the Lunar New Year festive break, new orders saw their sharpest drop in five months, signalling still weak underlying demand as well. This may come as front-loading activities taper off and uncertainties around US tariffs continue to weigh on sentiments.

With the recent rally in Chinese equities fuelled by optimism over the closing of the US-China tech gap through DeepSeek, upcoming data will offer a reality check on China’s broader macroeconomic outlook. February’s official manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 50.0, reflecting a fragile balance between growth and contraction.