How NVIDIA's earnings report may impact Nasdaq 100 trajectory

US tech 100: lower wedge trendline on watch

Recent retracement of 4% over the past week has brought the Nasdaq 100 index back to a near-term wedge support at the 20,354 level, which may leave buyers seeking for a new higher low ahead. For now, the daily relative strength index (RSI) has offered a technical reset from the earlier Trump-induced euphoria, with the indicator back at its neutral 50 level.

No doubt it may all boil down to Nvidia’s Q3 earnings this week to set the stage for year-end market direction. Given that Nvidia's share price has recently reclaimed its previous highs, expectations for an outperformance is a given, with focus likely to revolve around whether its forward guidance can continue to impress.

The broader upward trend for the Nasdaq 100 index may likely persist, with economic data validating soft-landing expectations, positive year-end seasonality and Federal Reserve (Fed)’s easing process to continue albeit at a more gradual pace. However, any break below the lower wedge trendline at the 20,354 level may call for a deeper retracement towards the 19,875 level next.

Levels:

• R2: 21,228
• R1: 20,700

• S1: 20,354
• S2: 19,875

US tech 100 daily chart

Spot gold: attempting to bounce off near-term support confluence

Gold prices are attempting to stabilise into the new week, as a pause in the US dollar rally and near-term consolidation in US Treasury yields offer room for sentiments to settle following three straight week of losses.

Much may seem to have been priced around Trump’s presidency for now, with the next stage being an actual validation of spending and tariff plans. Of course, the recent run in positive US economic surprises has also made previous Fed’s rate cuts look like an overreaction, which should prompt a less-dovish rhetoric from US policymakers in the December meeting. But at least for now, developments on these fronts may still be some time out, which may offer gold prices some room for a breather.

An interaction with a key support confluence at the US$2,564 level is met with a slight bounce to start the week, where an upward trendline support coincides with its 100-day moving average (MA) and daily Ichimoku Cloud zone. Its daily RSI is also reverting from previous oversold conditions, but the key 50 level will likely be a hurdle to address ahead. The recent dip in its daily RSI marks its first since July 2024, suggesting that any formation of a lower high could remain a key risk to watch. For now, any bounce may leave eyes on the US$2,685 level, with invalidation for longs potentially marked by a breakdown of the support confluence at the US$2,564 level.

Levels:

• R2: 2786
• R1: 2685

• S1: 2564
• S2: 2475

Spot gold daily chart

USD/JPY: near-term higher low on the lookout

With yield differentials between US and Japan brought to a near-term consolidation, the rally in the USD/JPY has taken a slight pause to end last week. The broader upward bias remains intact however, with the pair recently finding a bounce off its 200-day MA, in coincidence with an upward trendline support at around the 151.96 level. The immediate risk could come with a near-term bearish divergence on its daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), which could suggest some stall in upward momentum for now.

Nevertheless, any move back towards the trendline support could leave any formation of a higher low on watch to keep the upward trend intact. Recent run of upside economic surprises of the US could pave the way for a less dovish rhetoric from US policymakers into the December meeting, which could keep the US dollar supported.

Levels:

• R2: 160.20
• R1: 157.60

• S1: 151.96
• S2: 148.86

USD/JPY daily chart