Key events to watch in the week ahead: 14 – 20 April 2025

This week’s overview

A volatile week caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff flip-flops has seen market sentiments swung dramatically in just a few days—from fear to relief and now to doubt. Following a historic US equities’ rally amplified by short-covering activities, investors are back to worrying about the impending growth risks brought on by US tariffs, as investors brace for prolonged US-China tensions and limited prospects for a near-term resolution.

Heading into the new week, here are five key events to watch.

US Q1 earnings season: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Netflix

Earnings season continues next week with key reports from major US banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Investors will also be closely watching Netflix, which could set the tone for growth-oriented stocks.

According to Refinitiv, Q1 earnings growth is projected at 7.8%—the slowest pace in five quarters. However, Q1 is expected to mark the low point for 2025, with earnings growth anticipated to rebound to 10–12% in the subsequent quarters.

16 April 2025 (Wednesday, 10am SGT): China’s GDP, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment

China’s economic data for the January–February period showed signs of stability. Retail sales rose to 4.2% from 4.0% previously, while fixed asset investment held steady at 4.1%. Industrial production grew 5.9% year-on-year—above expectations, though slightly below the prior 6.2%.

However, as US–China trade tensions escalate, markets will be closely watching how the initial wave of 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports will begin to affect economic conditions, which may be reflected in the upcoming data. The effective tariff rate has been raised to 145% just this week—an exceptionally high level that will likely pose significant downside risks to China’s export-reliant growth in the months ahead.

Attention will also be on China’s upcoming Q1 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) figure, with expectations for a 5.2% year-on-year expansion, down slightly from 5.4% in Q4 2024. With Beijing targeting around 5% growth for the year, any signs of economic softness may increase pressure on policymakers to respond more aggressively—through further rate cuts, stronger fiscal stimulus, or a gradual depreciation of the yuan.

16 April 2025 (Wednesday, 8.30pm SGT): US core retail sales

In February, US headline retail sales rose 0.2% month-on-month (MoM), rebounding from a downwardly revised 1.2% drop in January, though falling short of expectations for a 0.6% gain.

More notably, the Retail Control Group—which feeds directly into GDP calculations and excludes sales from auto dealers, building materials, and gas stations—jumped 1.0% in February, following a revised 1.0% decline in January. This was well above market expectations for a 0.2% increase.

However, growing uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s tariff and trade policies has weighed heavily on consumer sentiment, fuelling concerns about a potential recession.

As a result, next week’s retail sales report will be closely watched for signs of resilience—or weakness—in the consumer sector. Current expectations for March point to a modest 0.1% rise in headline retail sales and a 0.2% decline in the Retail Control Group.

17 April 2025 (Wednesday, 9.30am SGT): Australia’s employment change

In February, Australian employment unexpectedly fell by 52,800—its first decline since March 2024—against forecasts for a 30,000 increase. Despite the drop, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, largely due to a sharp fall in the participation rate, which slipped to 66.8% from 67.2%.

At its April meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged and noted that labour market conditions "remain tight." The RBA also reiterated its data-dependent approach, stating it would continue to monitor global economic developments, financial markets, domestic demand trends, and the inflation and labour market outlook when shaping future policy.

Should next week’s jobs report disappoint, it would likely strengthen expectations for a rate cut in May—a move already fully priced in by markets following recent financial volatility.

Preliminary forecasts for March point to a 30,000 increase in employment, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

18 April 2025 (Friday, 7.30am SGT): Japan’s consumer price index (CPI)

Japan’s headline CPI eased to 3.7% in February 2025 from a two-year high of 4.0% in the previous month, largely due to the government's reinstatement of energy subsidies. However, core CPI rose more than expected to 3.0% year-on-year—slightly lower than January’s 3.2% increase, but still marking the second straight month of upside surprises. Core inflation has now remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for nearly three years.

Looking ahead to March, core CPI is expected to rise to 3.2%, up from February’s 3.0%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures. This will likely complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook, as it seeks to balance inflation control with external growth risks—particularly from US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures. For now, markets are pricing in no further rate hikes from the central bank, with the policy rate expected to remain steady at 0.50% through the rest of this year.