How to trade or invest around the US presidential election 2024
Find out how the markets might move and what assets you can trade or invest in with us1
Start trading today. For account opening enquiries call 1800 601 799 between 9am and 6pm (AEDT) weekdays, or email newaccounts.au@ig.com.
Contact us: 1800 601 799
Start trading today. For account opening enquiries call 1800 601 799 between 9am and 6pm (AEDT) weekdays, or email newaccounts.au@ig.com.
Contact us: 1800 601 799
2024 US Presidential Election polling
When is the next US presidential election?
The next United States presidential election is scheduled for 5 November 2024
Why trade or invest around the 2024 US election with us?
Buy US shares from $0 commission
Invest in American shares from $0 by using the instant currency conversion facility on your share trading account. 2 A 0.7% FX conversion fee applies.
Trade US indices from 0.4 points, plus GBP/USD and EUR/USD from 0.6 points
Go long or short with CFDs on all key US indices, and all the major USD, GBP and EUR forex pairs
Risk management and trading alerts
Protect your capital with guaranteed stops, that only incur a fee when triggered, and set price alerts
Trade round the clock to take advantage of election news
Make the most of 24-hour trading on key global indices and extended hours on US stocks – only with us3
Our analyst Axel Rudolph’s stocks and markets to watch
- Stock market indices
- Shares
- Currencies
- Commodities
- Bonds
The stock market has a history of reacting, sometimes sharply, around major elections. According to a recent FT Michigan Ross poll, a Kamala Harris win would likely be welcomed by the broader market given her party’s generally pro-business and investor-friendly economic policies and the fact that she is more trusted to handle the economy.
However, certain sectors like fossil fuels and private prisons could face pressure under her administration. Meanwhile, a Trump re-election could spark initial unease and volatility across indices given his unpredictable governing style in the past.
Were Trump to cut taxes again, though, indices would likely rally. Sectors such as healthcare, infrastructure, and defence stocks could benefit under Trump.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and conditions. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
General advice only
Healthcare shares face uncertainty headed into the election.
Harris supports expanding public health insurance options which could pressure private health insurers’ profits. Trump favours repealing the Affordable Care Act. The former president is tipped to make changes in laws and regulations that could have a huge impact on sales and profits for health insurers, hospitals, drug and medical-device companies.
Biotech and pharmaceutical companies are also expected to monitor the winning candidate's drug pricing reform plans closely. The sector could see volatility around the election before stabilising directionally after.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and conditions. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
General advice only
In the currency market, the US Dollar's value against other major currencies like the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Yen and Chinese Yuan is likely to see initial election-driven volatility.
A Trump win may spark safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, while a Harris win could weaken it. The direction of fiscal spending, trade policies, and transatlantic relations under the next administration could shape currency moves.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and conditions. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
General advice only
The oil and gas market would be watching the election closely. A Harris win raises the possibility of more stringent environmental regulations and a faster transition away from fossil fuels to combat climate change.
This regulatory pressure could weigh on oil and gas prices, at least initially. Meanwhile, a Trump win would likely entail more drilling-friendly policies that support commodity price strength.
The election could also impact agricultural commodities based on each candidate's trade policies, those of a Trump presidency probably being more restrictive with regards to China than that of Harris.
A majority of analysts seem to think that the Russia/Ukraine war might end sooner rather than later under Trump which may lead to a fall in the oil price as ample supply might flood the market, especially if China - the world’s largest oil importer - experiences lacklustre growth.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and conditions. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
General advice only
The direction of bond yields and prices probably only hinges to a minor degree on the election outcome and are instead driven by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy.
A Trump victory may lead to inflation concerns and higher Treasury bond yields, while a Harris win would likely reassure bond investors and keep yields low. The fiscal policy agenda and federal spending ambitions of the next administration will probably shape market reactions only to a minor degree.
Prices above are subject to our website terms and conditions. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
General advice only
How to trade or invest around the 2024 US election
- Research the market you want to take a position on
- Decide whether you want to trade or invest
- Open a CFD trading or share trading account
- Search for your market on our web platform or app
- Place your trade
What to know about trading and investing around the US election
You can trade or invest with us to get access to US election opportunity
Investing
Trading
- Open a CFD trading account with us to trade on leverage across indices, forex, shares, ETFs, commodities and more
When you invest, you buy and own shares or funds. You put up the full value of the trade. Remember that the value of investments can go down as well as up, and past performance is no indicator of future returns.
When you trade, you do so using leverage. This means you put up a fraction of the total position size to open your trade. However, this comes with risk – leverage means you can gain or lose money much faster than you’d expect, and you could even lose more than your initial deposit.
Tips on how to trade the US election
Markets are often volatile following a US election. Here are our tips for trading the increased volatility:
Keep up to date with the latest news
Stay informed with our award-winning4 trading platform's built-in tools, including news feeds from in-house experts and Reuters. Keeping abreast of rapidly developing stories reduces the risk of being caught off guard.
Our platform provides comprehensive resources to help you stay updated on market-moving news and events.
React in real time
Trade US indices around the clock and access extended hours on key US shares, exclusive to our clients.3 Our trading app allows you to take positions on the go.
With 24-hour access and mobile capabilities, you can respond swiftly to market movements, ensuring you never miss an opportunity.
Ensure you don't miss key moves
Set alerts and see signals within our platform to notify you of crucial buy or sell price points. Customise preferences to receive notifications via email, SMS, or push notifications.
This feature enables you to capitalise on fast-moving markets, allowing you to take new positions or adjust existing ones within seconds.
Trade on positive or negative price movements
Use CFDs to go long or short as opportunities arise. Go long if you expect markets to rise, and short if you anticipate a fall.
This flexibility allows you to potentially profit from both upward and downward market movements, adapting your strategy to changing market conditions. Note: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Protect yourself against risk
Manage risk when trading leveraged CFDs. While leverage requires only a margin deposit, it amplifies both profits and losses.
Implement risk management strategies like guaranteed stops to cap maximum risk, and consider hedging your portfolio or USD exposure to protect against adverse market movements.
Prepare for election night volatility
Anticipate rapid market rotations and price swings during election results. Expect prolonged uncertainty if vote counting extends over days. Prepare for heightened volatility, especially during less liquid overnight sessions.
Monitor key technical levels and implement prudent risk management. Stay informed on polling data and adjust allocations strategically to navigate volatility and capitalise on election-driven market movements.
How do US elections impact the markets?
Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a 7% rise during election years since 1952, though this is lower than the 17% average gain in the year prior to elections. The bond market has also shown strong performance, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index averaging a 7% return in election years from 1976 to 2020.
However, it's important to note that factors like corporate earnings, central bank policies, and macroeconomic events often play a more significant role in market performance than elections alone.
Contrary to the Presidential Election Cycle Theory, which suggests weaker share-performance in the first two years of a presidential term, recent history has shown mixed results.
Analysis indicates that US equities have performed better under Democratic presidents, with a 13.8% nominal return compared to 8.9% under Republican presidents.
However, this should be interpreted cautiously, as external factors and unprecedented events can significantly impact market performance regardless of the party in power.
Interestingly, a divided government doesn't always hamper market performance, with data suggesting that the S&P 500 performed best under Democratic presidents without a Congressional majority.
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Open an account now
Open an account now
Fast execution on a huge range of markets
Enjoy flexible access to 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution
Deal seamlessly, wherever you are
Trade on the move with our natively designed, award-winning trading app*
*Best Finance App, Best Multi-Platform Provider and Best Platform for the Active Trader as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2024.
Feel secure with a trusted provider
With 50 years of experience, we’re proud to offer a truly market-leading service
How can you hedge risk during the presidential election?
You can hedge risk during the presidential election by opening positions that will turn a profit if assets you own – such as currencies or shares – start to lose money. With us, you can hedge against:
Dollar volatility
We offer over 80 forex pairs including AUD/USD and EUR/USD, enabling you to insulate yourself from currency risk
Share portfolio risk
You can go short on major indices and over 13,000 domestic and international shares and ETFs, so you can protect your entire portfolio from downside risk
Weekend movements
We offer an unrivalled range of weekend markets, including USD/JPY, GBP/USD and Wall Street, so you can offset your risk whenever volatility arises
To start hedging, open a live account with us today. Or test out your trading theories with virtual funds in our demo account.
Options strategies for the 2024 US election
Bullish? Bearish? Whatever-ish? You can trade whether markets are moving up, down or sideways with options.
Learn how different options trading strategies can give you the upper hand, whatever your outlook, with our four scenarios below.
- Covered call
- Long put
- Long straddle
- Iron condor
What if markets rally?
Possible strategy: Covered call
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish
A Covered call strategy is a smart way to potentially enhance returns when you already own shares and expect the market to rise moderately but not past the strike price.
How it works:
You own shares of a stock and then sell a call option on those shares. This means you’re giving someone else the right to buy your stock at a predetermined price (the strike price) before or on a certain date.
Max Loss: As you also hold the shares, there is a risk of losing money on that shareholding if the price moves against you. This is partially offset by the premium received for selling the call, but if the underlying price slumps to zero, you'd lose the whole investment (less the premium).
Max Profit: You earn the premium from selling the call option, which adds to your income. If the stock doesn’t rise above the strike price, you keep both the premium and your shares.
Why use it when you expect markets to rally?
When you expect a moderate increase in a stock’s price, a covered call strategy can be a great way to generate extra income. You still benefit from owning the stock as it appreciates, and the premium from selling the call option provides additional profit. This strategy is ideal for maximising returns in a slightly bullish market while managing risk.
What if markets slump?
Possible strategy: Long put
Bias: Bearish
A Long put strategy is used to potentially enhance returns when you believe a share’s price is about to drop.
How it works:
You buy a put option, which gives you the right to sell a specific share at a predetermined price (the strike price) before or on a certain date.
Max Loss: The most you can lose is the cost of the option itself (known as the premium).
Max Profit: If the share’s price falls significantly below the strike price, you could see substantial profits.
Why use it when you expect markets to slump?
When you anticipate a specific share's price will fall, a long put strategy can be useful. It allows you to profit from the decline while keeping your risk limited to the premium paid. This makes it a useful tool for protecting your investments or even capitalising on a bearish market outlook.
What if markets are unpredictably volatile?
Possible strategy: Long straddle
Bias: Bullish/Bearish
A Long straddle strategy could be your go-to move when you expect big market swings but aren’t sure which direction prices will go.
How it works:
You simultaneously buy both a call option and a put option on the same shares, with the same strike price and expiration date. This means you’re positioned to profit whether the share price goes up or down.
Max Loss: The most you can lose is the combined cost of buying both options (the premium).
Max Profit: If the share price makes a significant move in either direction, whether it’s a sharp rise or a steep drop, you stand to make substantial profits.
Why use it when you expect markets to be volatile?
When you expect markets to be highly unpredictable, with the potential for large price movements, a long straddle strategy allows you to capitalise on that volatility. Whether the market trends upward or downward, you’re covered. This makes it an option for times when you expect a major shift but can’t predict the direction, ensuring you’re ready to profit no matter how the market moves.
What if markets drift?
Possible strategy: Iron condor
Bias: Neutral
An Iron condor strategy can be a smart way to profit when you expect the market to stay calm and trade within a specific range.
How it works:
You create an iron condor by selling one out-of-the-money (OTM) call and one out-of-the-money (OTM) put while simultaneously buying a further OTM call and a further OTM put. This creates a range in which you can profit.
Max Loss: The risk is limited to the difference between the strike prices of the options, minus the net premium received. However, your potential loss is capped due to the protective options you’ve bought.
Max Profit: If the share price stays within the range set by the sold options, you keep the net premium from selling the options, which is your profit.
Why use it when you expect markets to drift?
When you expect markets will be quiet and trading sideways with little volatility, an iron condor strategy allows you to earn income from the premiums received by selling the options. As long as the share price stays within the defined range, you profit. This strategy is designed for low volatility environments where you don’t expect significant price movements, making it an excellent choice for generating steady returns in stable markets.
US-related news
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How the Fed's latest rate decisions could reshape the 2025 economic landscape
2024-12-19T04:24:27+0000
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2 Commission-free trading is provided to clients using our instant currency conversion facility when buying US and international shares online. Clients who choose to convert currencies manually will pay commission of 2 cents per share with a minimum charge of $10 on US stocks.For European markets, we charge £10 / €10 per trade or 0.1%, whichever is higher. For orders placed by telephone, see the full list of our share trading charges.
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4 Best Finance App, Best Multi-Platform Provider and Best Platform for the Active Trader as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2024.
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