Markets week ahead

Global market sentiment continued deteriorating this past week. On Wall Street, futures tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones weakened by 2.97%, 4.49% and 2.81% respectively. For the S&P 500, this meant a 7th consecutive weekly losing streak. That was the worst consistent performance since 2001.

Risk aversion did not mean another strong week for the haven-linked US dollar, which weakened the most since late January. As a result, some of its major peers outperformed. These included the euro and British pound. In fact, GBP/USD rose over 1.9% in the strongest weekly return since the end of 2020. The Australian and New Zealand dollars outperformed as well.

It seems there were growing concerns about a US recession down the road as the markets priced out some Federal Reserve tightening in 2023. Treasury yields continued to level off, with the ten-year seeing its worst two-week performance since November. Weakness in the US Dollar and government bond yields meant gold prices shined, gaining 1.9%.

The economic docket notably picks up in the week ahead. FOMC minutes will be closely eyed, which could uphold the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. The central bank will also be eyeing its preferred gauge of inflation, PCE core. As such, these events could continue threatening general risk appetite.

The New Zealand dollar will be awaiting the RBNZ rate decision. A 50-basis point rate hike is expected to 2.00% from 1.50% prior, with more to come in July. A federal election in Australia might do little to influence the Australian dollar given the policies being prescribed by the two major parties. What else is in store for markets in the week ahead?

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