Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings preview: will the 50% Tesla share price rally continue?
Explore Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings expectations, including EPS and revenue forecasts, market share changes, and analyst insights. Understand the factors driving Tesla's performance and future growth strategies.
When will Tesla report its latest earnings?
Tesla will be releasing its second quarter (Q2) results after the market closes on Wednesday, 24 July at 6.10am AEST.
Tesla's Q2 EPS and revenue forecasts
Company forecast
- Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at $0.61 for Q2 2024.
Analysts predictions
- Analysts predict Tesla's EPS to be $0.61, lower than the $0.91 reported in Q2 2023 but higher than the $0.45 in Q1 2024
- Revenue is forecasted at $20.16 billion, around 5% lower than the $21.27 billion in Q2 2023, but 16% higher than the $17.38 billion in Q1 2024.
New market share low: Tesla sells less than 50% of US electric vehicles
Tesla's commanding lead in the United States electric vehicle (EV) market slipped in the second quarter of 2022, according to new estimates published by Cox Automotive, an auto industry research firm. Tesla accounted for 49.7% of EV sales from April to June, a drop from 59.3% in the same period last year. This marks the first time Tesla's quarterly market share has fallen below 50%.
Even as overall EV sales hit a record high in the second quarter, Tesla lost market share to rivals like General Motors, Ford, Hyundai, and Kia in its domestic market. The declining market share signals that Tesla is losing some of its dominance in the EV market it helped create with the launch of the Model S sedan in 2012. Major automakers are ramping up their EV programs, increasing competition in a market Tesla once led comfortably.
The story is similar in other countries, especially in China, where there have been ongoing price cuts from the world's largest EV company, BYD.
Tesla US electric vehicle market share chart
Goldman Sachs price target increase
Goldman Sachs analysts have increased their price target and estimates for Tesla following stronger-than-expected Q2 vehicle deliveries, though they maintain a neutral rating on the stock. Tesla recently reported Q2 deliveries of around 444,000 vehicles, exceeding Goldman's estimate of 415,000 units as well as the broader consensus of 439,000. Production came in at 411,000 vehicles for the quarter.
Analysts attribute the delivery beat to factors like Tesla reducing inventory, providing purchase incentives, and the Model 3 Long Range regaining eligibility for the US EV tax credit. However, they note ongoing headwinds for Tesla demand: higher interest rates making purchases more expensive, waning effects from past price cuts, and intensifying competition in key markets like China.
Tesla analyst ratings
LSEG Data & Analytics show a consensus analyst rating between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ for Tesla, with 7 strong buy, 13 buy, 20 hold, 6 sell, and 4 strong sell ratings (as of 11 June 2024).
Tesla recommendations
Tesla technical analysis
Last week’s Tesla share price break through its 2021-to-2024 downtrend line and rise above its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $231.86-to-$233.21 not only put it back into positive year-to-date territory but is also a medium-term bullish technical signal.
A weekly chart close above the December peak at $265.13 would target the September high at $278.98 and then the July 2023 peak at $299.29, as well as the psychological $300 mark.
Tesla weekly candlestick chart
The Tesla share price’s approximately 40% rally in the past couple of weeks is expected to at least, in the short term, take a breather as an exponential ascent of this nature is not sustainable over several weeks. That said, any short-term pullback is likely to represent a buying opportunity.
The breached long-term downtrend line should, due to inverse polarity, now act as a support line at $233.21, together with the 200-week SMA at $231.86. Further down the 200-day SMA at $205.46 may act as support with the psychological $200 mark, were it to be revisited at all.
Tesla daily candlestick chart
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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