Ahead of the game: 2 December 2024

Record highs for Dow Jones amidst tech stock caution

In a holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones reached a new record high, surpassing 45,000. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 saw a slight decline as investors continued to take a cautious approach to tech stocks following Nvidia's mixed earnings report.

The ASX 200 hit new record highs on Monday and Thursday of this week, but a pullback before the weekend left it finishing the week only marginally higher near 8400.

The week that was: highlights

• In the United States (US), headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rose by 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) in October, up from a three-year low of 2.1%
• Core PCE inflation rose by 2.8% YoY in October, the most in six months
• The Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence in November rose to 111.7 from 109.6 prior
• Initial jobless claims stayed at 213,000 for the week ending 23 November
• Durable goods orders excluding transport increased by 0.1% month-on-month (MoM) in October, missing forecasts for 0.6%
• In New Zealand (NZ), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) to 4.25% as expected
• In Australia (AU), the monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator for October fell to 2.1% versus 2.3% expected. Annual trimmed mean inflation was 3.5%, up from 3.2% in the previous month and similar to where it was in August
• Crude oil fell 3.31% to $68.88
• Gold fell 2.9% to $2637
• Bitcoin fell 3.24% to $94,822
• Wall Street's gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), fell to 14.11 from 15.24.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU: Retail sales (Monday, 2 December at 11.30am AEDT)
• AU: Quarter 3 (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) (Wednesday, 4 December at 11.30am AEDT)
• AU: Trade balance (Thursday, 5 December at 11.30am AEDT)
• AU: Home loans (Friday, 6 December at 11.30am AEDT)

China & Japan

• CN: Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) (Monday, 2 December at 12.45pm AEDT)
• CN: Caixin services PMI (Wednesday, 4 December at 12.45pm AEDT)
• CN: Trade balance (Saturday, 7 December at 2.00pm AEDT)

United States

• US: ISM manufacturing PMI (Tuesday, 3 December at 2.00am AEDT)
• US: JOLTS job openings (Wednesday, 4 December at 2.00am AEDT)
• US: ISM services PMI (Thursday, 5 December at 2.00am AEDT)
• US: Non-farms payrolls (Saturday, 7 December at 12.30am AEDT)

Europe & United Kingdom

• EA: Unemployment rate (Monday, 2 December at 9.00pm AEDT)
• EA: Retail sales (Thursday, 5 December at 9.00pm AEDT)

Key events for the week ahead

• CN

Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs

Monday, 2 December at 12.45pm AEDT

The China Caixin purchasing managers' index (PMI) reflects economic activities around smaller private-sector companies, compared to the official PMI data, which comprises larger state-owned firms. The October read has revealed some green shoots, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 from the 49.3 prior, and marked a return to expansion.

The Caixin services PMI improved to 52.0 from the 50.5 prior as well, showing expansion for the 22nd consecutive month. Combined, the composite PMI rose to 51.9, reflecting its fastest growth in four months.

While the improvement in economic activities may reflect some degree of success from China’s late-September stimulus measures, focus will be on whether the recovery momentum can continue into November without a stronger fiscal injection into the economy. More clarity may also be sought on whether the strong improvement in new orders is a result of front-loading ahead of US economic pressures, or if there is more sustainable underlying demand conditions at play.

Expectations are for China’s November Caixin manufacturing PMI to reflect an improvement to 50.5, up from the 50.3 in October.

CN Caixin manufacturing and services PMI chart

• AU

Q3 GDP

Wednesday, 4 December at 11.30am AEDT

Australian gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% in the June quarter of this year for an annual rate of 1.0%. While the Australian economy grew for an eleventh consecutive quarter, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period, it was the lowest growth rate since 1991-92—the year that included the gradual recovery from the 1991 recession.

Within the details

• Per capita GDP growth fell by 0.4% QoQ. It was the sixth consecutive quarterly fall in per capita GDP and the longest stretch of negative growth on record as the "per capita recession" deepened
• The household saving to income ratio was unchanged at 0.6% as a 0.9% rise in gross disposable income outpaced a rise in nominal household spending of 0.7%
• Household spending fell 0.2% in the quarter, detracting 0.1 percentage points from growth. This was the largest decline in consumer spending since the GFC (outside of the pandemic)
• Inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from growth in the June quarter following a build in March
• Government spending rose 1.4% as national non-defence spending drove growth.

The slow pace of economic growth is the unpleasant side effect of restrictive monetary policy, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to look to rebalance demand and supply to cool stubborn inflation.

The market consensus is for the annual rate of growth to remain at 1% in Q3. The RBA’s updated forecasts contained in the November Statement of Monetary Policy have GDP rising to 1.5% in Q4 before a pickup to 2.3% by June 2025. Despite expecting another slow quarter of growth, the interest rate market is not anticipating a first 25 bp RBA rate cut until May.

AU GDP growth rate chart

• US

ISM manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, 3 December at 2.00am AEDT

For September 2024, the US manufacturing and services sectors showed mixed performance. The PMI numbers signal a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for the seventh consecutive month (46.5 versus 47.6 consensus), while services activities expanded for the fourth consecutive month at 56.0 (53.8 consensus).

The divergence suggests that the services sector continues to be the engine of growth for the US economy, while weak global demand has been a headwind for the manufacturing sector. That said, the broader theme still leans towards a potential soft landing in the US economy, given the run in upside economic surprises since August 2024, while the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing process is likely to continue into 2025.

Expectations are for US ISM manufacturing PMI to show a lesser contraction at 47.5, up from 46.5 in October. Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 55.5, down slightly from 56.0 prior, overall pointing to US economic resilience.

US ISM manufacturing and services PMI chart

• US

Non-farms payrolls

Saturday, 7 December at 12.30am AEDT

October's NFP report was mixed. The US economy added just 12,000 jobs compared to the 113,000 expected. Some of the weakness was driven by hurricane disruption, while strikes also accounted for a 37,000 decline. The weak headline numbers were accompanied by downward revisions of 112,000 jobs over the past two months. Providing some offset, the household survey, which was presumably less hurricane-affected, showed a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%.

November's preliminary expectation is for the US economy to add 200,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge higher to 4.2%. The US interest rate market is pricing in a 50% chance of a 25 bp rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18, with a weaker-than-expected jobs number likely to see that pricing move closer to 70%.

US umeployment rate chart