This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
Call it an unwinding of hedges put in before the election, call it a relief rally, or call it the working out of strong seasonality patterns. Whatever is used to describe the bounce across all stock markets this morning, it has certainly put the gloss back on risk appetite.
The reaction seems a bit strong for a result that chimed with what everyone was apparently expecting anyway. But we had seen markets suffer steady losses over the past month, usually April is a good month, with the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX all historically strong. But the recent rally had begun to look jaded, with Donald Trump failing to deliver, and geopolitical concerns on the rise. Emmanuel Macron’s win doesn’t change anything outside France, and with a second round still to be run we are not out of the woods yet.
But the polls put him well ahead of rival Marine Le Pen for round two, and French pollsters have a good record behind them. Trump appears to be promising some kind of development on tax reform this week, which could provide more bullish momentum. US yields are picking up again, after a period of weakness, which should help the US banking sector, which itself has been hit hard over the past month.
Positioning has become more bearish in the last month, although it has yet to hit the highs of late October last year. This rally is not over yet, it seems, with the chance of one more push higher now very real, before markets hit the summer period, which, if not particularly negative, doesn’t usually see a strong bullish pattern.
.jpg)
