Are UK gilt yields signaling a new financial crisis?
The British government has acted to calm UK bond markets and the pound sterling as 10-year gilt yields reach their highest levels since 2008, prompting concerns over fiscal stability.
UK gilt yields surge to crisis-era highs
The United Kingdom’s (UK) 10-year government bond (gilt) yield has climbed to 4.93%, marking its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and the 30-year gilt yield to 5.44%, its highest level since 1998.
The Treasury has emphasised that gilt markets continue to function normally, with recent auctions showing strong demand despite the volatile conditions.
The British pound sterling (GBP) has experienced significant weakness, dropping as much as 1% against the US dollar (USD). GBP/USD to reach its lowest level in over a year, highlighting broader market concerns about UK fiscal stability.
Market participants are closely monitoring the situation for similarities to the 2022 gilt crisis, although many analysts suggest current circumstances are less severe.
Treasury's response to market volatility
The Treasury has reaffirmed its commitment to fiscal responsibility. Chief Secretary Darren Jones stated that adhering to fiscal rules remains 'non-negotiable' amid market turbulence.
Current bond market conditions have raised speculation about potential tax increases or spending cuts. The Treasury, however, has indicated a preference for expenditure reduction if needed.
Recent trading signals suggest that investors remain concerned about the UK's significant borrowing needs and increasing stagflation risks.
The government faces the challenge of maintaining market confidence while managing a substantial annual interest bill exceeding £100 billion.
Impact on UK monetary policy
The Bank of England finds itself in a complex position as it balances inflation concerns against market stability. The situation has drawn attention to the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal stability in challenging economic conditions.
Analysts suggest the central bank is likely to maintain its current stance unless market movements become more severe, with verbal intervention being the preferred tool for now.
Market participants are watching for any signs of policy adjustment in response to the ongoing bond market pressure.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The swift rise in yields had a negative impact on the sterling with GBP/USD dropping to $1.2239, a level last traded in November 2023.
The currency pair has been declining since September when it reached a high of around $1.3400. Since then, GBP/USD has fallen by about 8%, even before the UK’s bond market turmoil began.
Monthly GBP/USD candlestick chart
The next potential downside target is the October 2023 low at $1.2038, near the psychological $1.2000 region. If further declines occur, the July 2022, January, and March 2023 lows at $1.1842 - $1.1760 might potentially be reached.
For a lasting recovery to manifest, a rise above the September to January downtrend line at $1.2575 would be necessary.
Market implications for traders
Despite the FTSE 250 practically recouping all of its morning losses and FTSE 100 trading in positive territory for the day, investors in UK shares and bonds need to consider the broader implications of rising government borrowing costs on market sentiment.
Intraday FTSE 250 versus FTSE 100 performance chart
Looking ahead: key factors to watch
- Upcoming inflation figures and growth indicators
- The Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts (Wednesday, 26 March)
- International factors, such as US Treasury yields and global risk appetite
- Domestic policy developments and external market influences.
The relationship between gilt yields and sterling presents opportunities for traders monitoring both forex and fixed income markets.
Current market conditions suggest increased volatility may persist, requiring careful risk management strategies. Traders should watch for potential spillover effects into other UK asset classes as the situation develops.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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