How France's budget crisis is affecting financial markets
France faces political gridlock over its 2025 budget, rattling markets and pushing French bond yields above Greek levels. Here's what traders need to know.
Understanding the political deadlock
France's government finds itself in a precarious position as Prime Minister Barnier struggles to pass the 2025 budget through a fractured parliament. The proposed €60 billion package of spending cuts and tax hikes has met fierce resistance from both the left and the right.
The far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, demands deeper spending cuts while opposing tax increases. Meanwhile, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) stands against any austerity measures, creating a seemingly impossible path to compromise.
The government may resort to invoking Article 49.3, allowing passage without a vote but risking a no-confidence motion. This constitutional mechanism could trigger a government collapse if opposition parties unite against Barnier.
With a 21 December deadline looming, financial markets are growing increasingly nervous about France's ability to manage its fiscal challenges and meet European Union (EU) deficit reduction targets.
Market reaction and trading implications
The most dramatic market response has been in French government bonds, where yields have surpassed Greek levels — a development few would have predicted. This represents a significant shift in how markets view French sovereign risk.
The CAC 40 has declined amid the uncertainty, with banking stocks particularly affected. Major French banks have seen their shares slide as investors price in potential risks. Meanwhile, the German DAX 40 has continued to rise, hitting new record highs in early December.
CAC 40 versus DAX 40 performance in 2024
Trading signals and volatility for French assets
Trading signals suggest increased volatility ahead for French assets, with technical indicators pointing toward continued pressure on both equities and bonds. Traders using spread betting or contract for differences (CFDs) trading platforms should be prepared for sharp price movements as political developments unfold.
CAC 40 technical analysis
Unlike other indices, the CAC 40 has failed to recover from the August low. While it did rally to 7800 by the end of September, this rally fizzled out, and the price has declined by 500 points since then.
Recent weakness has found buyers around 7150, but since late November, attempts to rally have fizzled out at 7300. Further declines target the August low around 7030. A close above 7300 might open the way to at least a short-term bounce.
CAC 40 daily chart
Comparison with previous crises
While some analysts draw parallels with Greece's debt crisis, France's situation remains fundamentally different. The country maintains strong market access and recently raised €8.3 billion at relatively modest yields.
French shares have been under pressure for months, underperforming other global indices, in part due to the ongoing political crisis. The euro has weakened but shows none of the dramatic moves seen during previous European crises. This indicates markets view this as a primarily French political crisis rather than a broader eurozone threat.
However, the situation bears watching as France hasn't balanced its budget in over 50 years, raising long-term sustainability questions.
Trading opportunities ahead
Increased volatility creates opportunities for traders across multiple asset classes. The forex market could see significant EUR/USD movement as the crisis develops.
French banking stocks may offer opportunities for both long and short positions through options trading as the situation evolves. Bond traders should watch for further yield spread widening between French and German government debt, while equity traders might find opportunities in defensive sectors.
Those interested in longer-term positions might consider exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading to gain broader exposure to French markets.
How to trade the French crisis
- Research France's political and economic situation thoroughly
- Choose whether you want to trade or invest
- Open an account with IG
- Select your preferred French markets
- Implement appropriate risk management strategies
Remember to maintain stop-losses and monitor position sizes given the heightened volatility. The situation remains fluid, and traders should stay informed of political developments that could trigger market moves.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
Take a position on indices
Deal on the world’s major stock indices today.
- Trade the lowest Wall Street spreads on the market
- 1-point spread on the FTSE 100 and Germany 40
- The only provider to offer 24-hour pricing
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
