ASEAN technical analysis: US dollar exhaustion signs pop up again

Singapore dollar technical outlook – bearish

The US dollar got crushed by the Singapore dollar this past week, with USD/SGD sinking 0.87%. That was the worst five-day performance since the middle of May. Prices confirmed a breakout under the short-term rising trendline from May, opening the door to extending losses. However, support held as the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It could still reinstate the upside focus. Otherwise, further losses would place the focus on the 100-day line. In the event of a turn higher, uptrend resumption needs a push above the July peak at 1.4096.

USD/SGD daily chart

Indonesian rupiah technical outlook – bullish

The US dollar still pushed higher against the Indonesian rupiah this past week. Upside progress was lackluster, however. Negative RSI divergence remains, showing that upside momentum is fading. Immediate resistance appears to be the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 15039 before the 150% level at 15092 comes into focus. In the event of a turn lower, the 20-day SMA could still hold as support, maintaining the dominant upside focus. As such, USD/IDR may remain biased higher in the interim.

USD/IDR daily chart

Thai baht technical outlook – slightly bullish

The US dollar was left little changed against the Thai baht this past week. USD/THB struggled to hold a push above the 2015 high at 36.668. Meanwhile, negative RSI divergence persisted, and a Shooting Star candlestick pattern emerged. Taking all of this into consideration, it seems that upside momentum is fading, opening the door to a turn lower. That said, much progress is needed lower to meaningfully shift the outlook from bullish to bearish. Both the 20- and 50-day SMAs remain tilted higher. Further gains would place the focus on the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 37.0671.

USD/THB daily chart

Philippine peso technical outlook – slightly bullish

The US dollar was little changed against the Philippine peso. That said, USD/PHP did leave behind a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. This could be an early sign of a reversal, which is being coupled with negative RSI divergence. That said, confirmation of the engulfing is lacking. Further downside progress could increasingly shift the outlook bearish, opening the door to facing the 20- and 50-day SMAs. These remain pointing higher, and they may reinstate the dominant uptrend. Key resistance is the 2005 high at 56.61.

USD/PHP daily chart

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