ASX 200 afternoon report: 11 February 2025

The ASX 200 trades 5 points (0.06%) higher at 8488 as of 2.10pm AEDT.

Potential tariff exemption: a silver lining for Australia?

The ASX 200 has edged higher today, ignoring a negative lead from United States (US) equity futures and declines across regional equity markets after President Trump signed an order to raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to a flat 25% "without exceptions or exemptions."

As we learned again last week, things are never set in stone when it comes to Trump's tariffs. Just hours after confirming the tariffs would take effect on 4 March "without exceptions or exemptions," President Trump noted he would give "great consideration" to a tariff exemption on Australian steel, citing that Australia is one of the few countries with which the US has a surplus.

While this is potentially good news for Australia, our steel and aluminium exports to the US are only modest. The more significant risk is the uncertainty the simmering trade war brings to markets.

Mixed results in reporting season

Reporting season has produced a mix of winners and losers today. Seven West Media surged 6.06% to $0.175, driven by a positive advertising outlook despite declining revenues and profits. Conversely, biotech giant CSL's share price fell 3.74% to $260.24 after reporting revenues and profits that missed expectations.

ASX 200 stocks

Mining sector

The best barometer of trade war uncertainty is gold, which hit another fresh record high today of $2942, now up 11.5% in the first six weeks of this year.

• Evolution Mining surged 6.41% to $6.31
• De Grey Mining added 5.83% to $2.18
• Northern Star Resources gained 4.75% to $18.66
• Regis Resources climbed 1.38% to $3.31

Consumer sector

Ahead of next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meeting, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index snapped a two-month losing streak today, rising 0.1% in February to 92.2, remaining in cautious territory.

• Myer rose 2.94% to $0.87
• Adairs added 1.47% to $2.76
• JB Hi-Fi steadied after yesterday’s earnings report-induced volatility, gaining 1.34% to $99.09
• Cettire fell 6.8% to $1.16
• Domino's Pizza dropped 3.57% to $34.69

Financial sector

Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence index bounced to +4 in January from -2 prior, marking its first positive reading since October.

• Macquarie added 2.13% to $232.70
• Westpac gained 0.46% to $34.13
• ANZ edged 0.13% higher to $30.95
• CBA fell 0.3% to $162.34
• NAB lost 0.12% to $40.49

ASX 200 technical analysis

Technically, the ASX 200 continues to trade within the bullish trend channel it has occupied for the past 12 months. After rebounding from the lower bound of the trend channel in late December, the ASX 200 has since made fresh record highs and is eyeing the top of the trend channel, now at approximately 8670.

As long as the ASX 200 holds above support at 8380 - 8360 on a closing basis, the uptrend remains in place, and the ASX 200 can continue higher towards 8670. However, a sustained break below 8380 - 8360 would shift the focus towards the bottom of the trend channel, currently at 8070 - 8050.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 February 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}