EUR/USD, AUD/USD advances stall while EUR/GBP nears support
Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD amid German consumer confidence and Australian retail sales data.
EUR/USD stalls marginally below last week’s $1.0965 high
EUR/USD comes off last week’s four-month high at $1.0965 despite German consumer confidence inching higher but remaining very low with no signs of a sustainable recovery in the months ahead.
While Monday’s low at $1.0926 isn’t giving way, overall upside pressure should remain intact. A rise above $1.0965 would engage the late June high at $1.1012 and the August peak at $1.1065.
A bullish continuation remains the most likely scenario as long as Wednesday’s low at $1.0853 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.
EUR/GBP reversal off its six-month highs nears its early November low
Over the past couple of weeks EUR/GBP has swiftly come off its six-month high at £0.8766 amid the UK’s autumn statement and as the UK government looks committed to revive the UK economy which has led to pound sterling appreciation.
The early November low at £0.865 is thus back in view, a slip through which would put the 11 October low at £0.8617 on the cards and confirm a medium-term toppish technical formation.
Resistance above the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), which currently cap at £0.868 to £0.8682, comes in along the breached August-to-November uptrend line which, because of inverse polarity, now acts as a resistance line at £0.8697 ahead of the July peak at £0.8701.
AUD/USD advances in 3 ½ month highs
AUD/USD’s advance in 3 ½ month highs has been slowed down as Australia retail sales unexpectedly fall with the cross slipping back from Tuesday’s $0.6631 peak.
The November accelerated uptrend line and 200-day SMA at $0.6589 to $0.6583 may offer support. While the next lower August and September highs and last Wednesday’s reaction low at $0.6522 to $0.6511 hold, the current medium-term uptrend will remain valid.
A rise above $0.6631 would have the early July high at $0.6705 in its sights.
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