Gold, Brent crude and lumber remain within bearish trend
Gold, Brent crude and lumber all show the potential for another turn lower, with resistance remaining intact for now.
Gold rebound looks to be shortlived
Gold has been hit hard over the course of the year thus far, with price currently down 20% on the March peak of $2070.
The failure of gold to perform in the face of an economic crisis has plenty to do with the rare scenario that interest rates are hiked during a recession. Quite how gold reacts to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) completion of their hiking phase around year-end remains to be seen.
However, it may be the case that gold only starts to really pick up steam once we see inflation turning lower in a manner that raises belief that rates could soon be slashed. For now, that is not the case.
As such, further downside looks likely before long, with the current rally simply looking like another retracement phase before we turn lower once again.
A break up through the $1729 swing-high would be required to negate that bearish outlook.
Brent crude continues to roll over after latest rebound
Brent crude has been on the back foot since the OPEC-led peak of $98, with price turning lower from the 76.4% Fibonacci region.
The OPEC decision to cut production does signal a willingness to impact supply in a bid to drive up prices. However, as long as rising prices drive down consumption volumes, and the US draws its Strategic Petroleum Reserves down, there remains a good chance we head lower here.
From this daily perspective, it is obvious that the bearish trend remains intact. However, a push up through the $$103.46 swing-high would negate that negative outlook.
Lumber rises into Fibonacci resistance
Lumber has been regaining ground over the course of the past week, with price rising into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance at $540.
This year has been a difficult one for lumber bulls, but seasonal trends do highlight a propensity to rally into year-end. For now, we are yet to see price break into a bullish position, with this Fibonacci level instead providing the potential for another downward turn here.
However, with that historical trend of strengthening in the fourth quarter, a rise through the $578 swing-high would bring about a more positive outlook for lumber.
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