Market update: gold hits record high while markets await key insights from Jackson Hole Symposium
US dollar weakens further ahead of key Federal Reserve chair speech, USD/JPY looks technically weak and gold consolidating Friday’s record high.
Jackson Hole Symposium focuses on monetary policy shifts
This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium, themed “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy,” is scheduled for 22-24 August, with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech on Friday as the highlight. Traders are anticipating that Chair Powell will signal the start of interest rate cuts in September.
Financial markets are currently pricing in nearly 100 basis points (bp) of rate cuts by the end of this year. With only three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings left in 2024, and considering that the Fed typically moves in 25 bp increments, a 50 bp rate cut seems probable if market predictions hold true.
Implied interest rates and basis points chart
USD/JPY experiences volatile trading
The USD/JPY (大口) currency pair has seen significant volatility over the past month. After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the second time this year, USD/JPY fell by 20 big figures in three weeks. The pair then surged nearly 10 big figures due to a strong US dollar, but dropped again last Friday and today on a weaker US dollar.
The next resistance for USD/JPY is expected between 151.45 (the 200-day simple moving average) and just under 152.00, a prior horizontal resistance level that has turned into support. If the pair experiences a renewed sell-off, the focus will likely shift to 140.28.
USD/JPY daily price chart
Gold breaks resistance and hits new high
Gold has finally broken through a stubborn resistance area, reaching a fresh all-time high on Friday. Expectations of lower interest rates and concerns over potential escalation in the Middle East have contributed to a strong underlying bid for gold.
Support is currently seen at $2485 per ounce, followed by $2450 per ounce, as gold continues its upward price discovery.
Gold daily price chart
Market sentiment and positioning on gold
Retail trader data shows that 43.65% of traders are net-long on gold, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.29 to 1. The number of traders net-long has increased by 11.99% from yesterday but is 13.24% lower than last week. Conversely, the number of traders net-short has risen by 5.76% from yesterday and 30.77% from last week.
Typically, a contrarian view to crowd sentiment is taken, and the fact that traders are net-short suggests that gold prices may continue to rise. However, positioning is less net-short compared to yesterday, but more net-short relative to last week, creating a mixed gold trading bias.
Gold client positioning chart
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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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