US dollar forecast: AUD/USD, NZD/USD long bets rise, is this a reversal warning?

The US dollar has been weakening against sentiment-linked currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as of late. However, looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which is a gauge of retail trader positioning, traders have recently started to increase their bullish bets on the Greenback. This is resulting in increasing AUD/USD and NZD/USD long bets. IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, could we see a turning point for AUD and NZD next?

Australian dollar sentiment outlook – bearish

The IGCS gauge shows that about 33% of retail traders are net-long AUD/USD. Since most investors are biased to the downside, this hints that prices may continue rising. However, downside exposure has decreased by 8.30% and 7.71% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall and recent changes in positioning are warning that prices may soon reverse lower.

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD recently closed above the 0.7532 – 0.7556 inflection zone, opening the door to extending gains since late January. Still, prices left behind a large upper wick on April 5th. This can be seen as a sign of indecision. Immediate resistance seems to be the 100% Fibonacci extension at 0.7639. A daily close above this price exposes the 123.6% level at 0.7751 before peaks from May 2021 come into focus. On the downside, keep a close eye on the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for support. Taking out the latter may open the door to testing rising support from January.

New Zealand dollar sentiment outlook – bearish

The IGCS gauge shows that about 54% of retail traders are net-long NZD/USD. Since most investors are now biased to the upside, this suggests that the pair may fall ahead. This is as downside exposure has decreased by 16.09% and 15.44% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall and recent changes in positioning is offering a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

NZD/USD daily chart

The New Zealand dollar also remains in an uptrend since late January. Unlike AUD/USD, NZD/USD has been struggling to find further upside momentum as of late. A large upper shadow was left behind on April 5th, hinting at indecision. Clearing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6955 exposes the 78.6% level at 0.7071 before peaks from October come into focus. Still, a bullish ‘Golden Cross’ remains in play between the 20- and 50-day SMAs, offering an upside bias. Breaking under the 20-day line could open the door to losses, placing the focus on the 0.6859 – 0.6891 inflection zone.

IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from April 5th Report

Follow Daniel Dubrovsky on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. This information Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence any person’s decisions about investing or financial products. The material on this page does not contain a record of IG’s trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.