Will Apple shares reach record highs before 2024 ends?
Apple's historical seasonality patterns suggest strong year-end performance potential, but macroeconomic challenges and market dynamics could impact its trajectory to new highs.
Understanding Apple's seasonality patterns
Apple's stock has historically demonstrated robust performance during the final quarter (Q4), with data spanning two decades highlighting consistent strength from October through December. The seasonality pattern reveals average gains of around 35% by year-end, underlining the importance of Q4 in Apple’s annual trading cycle. This strength typically aligns with major product launches and the critical holiday shopping season, when consumer electronics sales reach their peak.
Historical trends suggest Apple benefits from both retail investor optimism and institutional portfolio rebalancing during these months, providing a favourable backdrop for share price growth.
Current market dynamics affecting Apple
The technology sector has faced notable challenges in 2024, with rising interest rates and inflation concerns impacting growth stock valuations. Despite this, the sector has achieved a 25% rally year-to-date (as of 22 November), overcoming significant headwinds.
Apple, as a market leader, remains highly sensitive to broader economic indicators and trading signals. Recent product launches, including the iPhone 15 series and Vision Pro, could act as catalysts for further share price appreciation. However, supply chain constraints remain a persistent risk.
Market sentiment towards technology stocks has improved, which could support Apple’s upward momentum into year-end, particularly as optimism grows over its ability to capitalise on seasonal tailwinds.
Key catalysts and risks
- Holiday season sales: analysts are watching consumer spending patterns closely, as economic uncertainty could weigh on this critical period
- Geopolitical tensions: supply chain disruptions, particularly in key markets like China, pose risks to Apple’s growth
- Services segment growth: this area provides stable revenue, complementing the more cyclical nature of hardware sales
- Innovation in AI and AR: advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and augmented reality (AR) could drive investor enthusiasm, although competition remains fierce.
Apple technical analysis
Apple's current technical setup points to trading near key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for further upside.
- Volume patterns: show strong institutional support during market pullbacks, indicating sustained confidence in the stock.
- Moving averages: price action remains above major moving averages, preserving the long-term uptrend despite recent volatility.
- Chart patterns: consolidation near previous highs could act as a springboard for new record levels if market conditions remain supportive.
Apple’s stock has recovered significantly from its August lows but has yet to fully reclaim losses from the summer pullback. Dips in September and November triggered fresh buying pressure, aiding the rally.
- Key target: the current target is $237, a level that acted as resistance in both July and late October
- Key support: a close below the November low of $220 could indicate potential short-term weakness.
Apple stock price chart
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