Fed and BoE December meetings: what to expect
The Federal Reserve and Bank of England hold their final policy meetings of 2024, with markets anticipating different outcomes from each central bank.
Federal Reserve meeting preview
The Federal Reserve (Fed) approaches its December meeting with markets pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut. This marks a continued shift in policy stance, following the aggressive hiking cycle of recent years.
Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have reinforced market expectations of a rate cut. His support hinges on incoming inflation and employment data aligning with current projections.
The Fed's target range currently stands at 4.5-4.75%, with the anticipated cut potentially bringing rates to 4.25-4.5%.
Markets will closely scrutinise the Fed's updated economic projections and dot plot for insights into the pace and extent of potential rate cuts throughout 2025.
Bank of England's challenging outlook
The Bank of England (BoE) faces a more complex decision-making environment, with UK inflation proving more persistent than in other major economies.
October's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reading of 2.3% exceeded the BoE's 2% target, suggesting the battle against inflation isn't yet won. This complicates the path to monetary policy easing.
Most analysts expect the BoE to hold the Bank Rate at 4.75% in December. The decision reflects a careful balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
The Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) voting pattern will be crucial, as recent meetings have shown a three-way split between members advocating holds, hikes, and cuts.
Market implications
Currency markets are likely to show heightened volatility during both meetings. The forex trading space could see significant moves, particularly in GBP/USD pairs.
Stock markets typically react strongly to central bank decisions, with the FTSE 100 often showing sensitivity to BoE announcements.
Interest rate-sensitive sectors, including banking and real estate, may experience increased volatility. This could create opportunities for spread betting and CFD trading.
Traders should also monitor bond markets, as futures trading volumes often spike around central bank meetings.
Economic indicators to watch
Market participants should monitor upcoming inflation data, as these figures could influence both central banks' decisions.
Employment statistics, particularly wage growth data, will be crucial. Strong wage pressures could deter both banks from aggressive policy easing.
Housing market data deserves attention, given its sensitivity to interest rates. The commodities trading sector often reacts to these indicators.
Global economic data, especially from China and Europe, could impact decision-making at both central banks.
How to trade central bank meetings
- Research thoroughly, analysing economic data and central bank communications
- Choose whether you want to trade or invest
- Open a trading account
- Search for markets sensitive to interest rate decisions
- Place your trades with appropriate risk management
Looking ahead to 2025
Both central banks will likely provide guidance on their 2025 policy paths, with markets particularly focused on the timing of further rate cuts.
The divergence between Fed and BoE policy could create interesting trading opportunities across currency pairs and stock indices.
Global economic conditions, particularly inflation trends and growth indicators, will shape monetary policy decisions throughout 2025.
Traders should prepare for potential market volatility as policy paths become clearer.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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