​​Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings preview: will the 50% Tesla share price rally continue?

​​​When will Tesla report its latest earnings?

​Tesla will be releasing its second quarter (Q2) results after the market closes on Tuesday 23 July.

​Tesla's Q2 EPS and revenue forecasts

​According to analysts, Tesla's second quarter earnings per share (EPS) reading is estimated to come in at $0.61, lower than the $0.91 figure in Q2 2023 but higher than the $0.45 in first quarter (Q1) 2024. Revenue, forecast at $20.16 billion, is also estimated to be around 5% lower than in Q2 2023 when it was at $21.27 billion but 16% above Q1 revenue at $17.38 billion.

​New market share low: Tesla sells less than 50% of US electric vehicles

​Tesla's commanding lead in the United States electric vehicle (EV) market slipped in the second quarter of 2022, according to new estimates published earlier this week by Cox Automotive, an auto industry research firm. Tesla accounted for 49.7% of EV sales from April to June, a drop from 59.3% in the same period last year. This is the first time Tesla's quarterly market share has fallen below 50%.

​Tesla US electric vehicle market share chart

​Even as overall EV sales hit a record high in the second quarter, Tesla lost market share to rivals like General Motors, Ford, Hyundai and Kia in its domestic market. The declining market share signals that Tesla is losing some of its dominance in the EV market that it helped create with the launch of the Model S sedan in 2012. As major automakers ramp up their EV programs, Tesla is facing increasing competition in a market it once led comfortably.

​The story is similar in other countries, especially in China, where there have been ongoing price cuts from the likes of the world’s largest EV company BYD.

​Goldman Sachs price target increase

​Goldman Sachs analysts have increased their price target and estimates for Tesla following stronger-than-expected Q2 vehicle deliveries, though they maintain a neutral rating on the stock. Tesla recently reported Q2 deliveries of around 444,000 vehicles, which exceeded Goldman's estimate of 415,000 units as well as the broader consensus of 439,000. Production came in at 411,000 vehicles for the quarter.

​The analysts attribute the delivery beat to factors like Tesla reducing inventory, providing purchase incentives, and the Model 3 Long Range regaining eligibility for the US EV tax credit. However, they note enduring headwinds for Tesla demand - higher interest rates making purchases more expensive, waning effects from past price cuts, and intensifying competition in key markets like China.

​Tesla analyst ratings

​LSEG Data & Analytics data shows a consensus analyst rating of between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ for Tesla with 7 strong buy, 13 buy, 20 hold, 6 sell and 4 strong sell (as of 11 June 2024).

​Tesla technical analysis

​Last week’s Tesla share price’s break through its 2021-to-2024 downtrend line and rise above its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $231.86-to-$233.21 not only took it back into positive year-to-date territory but is also a medium-term bullish technical signal.

​A weekly chart close above the December peak at $265.13 would put the September high at $278.98 and then the July 2023 peak at $299.29 as well as the psychological $300 mark on the map.

​Tesla weekly candlestick chart

​The Tesla share price’s around 40% rally in the past couple of weeks is expected to at least in the short-term take a breather as an exponential ascent as this one is not sustainable over several weeks. Having said that, any short-term pullback is likely to represent a buying opportunity.

​The breached long-term downtrend line should, because of inverse polarity, now act as a support line at $233.21, together with the 200-week SMA at $231.86.

​Tesla daily candlestick chart

​Further down the 200-day SMA at $205.46 may act as support with the psychological $200 mark, were it to be revisited at all.