Look ahead: Retail Tuesday; German industrial production; eurozone unemployment; US trade
Retail sales figures from Britain and Australia will punctuate the early part of Tuesday’s session, along with industrial output and jobless figures from Europe.
Watch out for US trade data ahead of the key CPI reading later on in the week. API crude oil inventories provide more supply slide clues to oil traders.
(AI Video Transcript)
Watching GBP/USD potential impact by possible Fed rate cut
In today's "Look ahead" to Tuesday 9 January, Angeline Ong gives an overview of what's happening in the retail and economic sectors. She starts by talking about the BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, which basically looks at how much people are spending on retail goods. It's expected to show a 2.1% increase compared to last year, which is a good sign for the economy. Ong also mentions that the exchange rate between GBP/USD is important to watch because it can be influenced by a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. However, recent data showing a strong US labor market has made people less sure about a rate cut.
Major UK retail outlets gain more market share
Next, Ong talks about some updates from major retail companies in the UK like Tesco, Sainsbury's, and Marks and Spencer. These companies have been able to keep their market share, but there's a question about whether they're making enough money considering the high cost of living. In Australia, there's also a focus on retail, with expectations of a 1.2% increase in retail sales in November.
German industrial production numbers
Moving on to Germany, the important thing to watch is the industrial production numbers for November, which are expected to stay the same. These numbers show how much stuff is being made in the country, and recent data has been a bit mixed. Additionally, there will be an announcement about the unemployment rate in the eurozone, which is expected to stay at 6.5% in November.
US CPI to be released
In the US, the focus is on trade balance figures, which basically show how much the US is exporting versus how much it's importing. Later in the week, there will be a key figure called the CPI, which stands for Consumer Price Index. It helps to give a sense of how much prices are changing for consumers. Ong mentions that the S&P 500, a stock market index, has been going down for the past five trading sessions, which could mean that the market is correcting itself before the CPI figure is released.
Saudi Arabia lowers oil prices
Lastly, in the energy sector, Ong talks about how Saudi Arabia has lowered oil prices and how OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) has increased its oil output. This has helped to balance out any concerns about the supply of oil and has led to a more than 2% decrease in oil prices.
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